The market is getting lulled into sleep here. In reality we think that both the inflation numbers and the growth numbers will keep the pressure on the Fed.
More Quotes from Ethan Harris:
It's true there's been a shift of income distribution, with a lot of income gains accruing to upper income individuals. The labor market is paying a bigger and bigger premium for being well educated, ... At the other end of the distribution, if you look at Joe Six-Pack, you've seen a big decline in big paying, low skill jobs in manufacturing.Ethan Harris
Before the war, consumers were doing OK, but the corporate sector didn't want to get going, ... We're back to the same environment. You see it in surveys of CEOs -- they just aren't convinced that now's the time to start expanding their business.
Ethan Harris
A lot of things have to go right even to get 2.3 percent growth for the year,
Ethan Harris
The economy is one ugly event away from contraction.
Ethan Harris
The reason the recovery was so feeble was you still had these hangover effects from the real estate and banking sectors, ... Real estate was still reeling from excess capacity and the whole thrift industry had been decimated by bad loans.
Ethan Harris
The Fed is trying to get us to stop listening to them and start listening to the forecast. If inflation picks up, and growth stays persistently above 3.25 percent, the Fed has more tightening rate raising to do.
Ethan Harris
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