We believe our competitors have shown irrational exuberance with Christmas forecasts, ... We believe the average consumer is worried about higher gasoline prices, jobs and doesn't believe he will benefit from the stock market. With this climate, if you're just a 'me-too' retailer, you'll be in a world of hurt. The department stores will suffer but the discounters Wal-Mart and Target will do well.
More Quotes from Bill Dreher:
We believe this update is a combination of management's typical conservatism and sales sluggishness from the unusually warm weather,Bill Dreher
The same issues which are depressing the consumer confidence numbers are going to depress holiday sales, ... Christmas is going to show up this year as it shows up every year. The question is, how generous are people going to be Are they going to go whole hog and return to the decadent spending levels of three or four years ago No, clearly not. People are going to be buying toys, but how many presents they buy, how wide that circle of gift giving is really is in question.
Bill Dreher
It's clear that the company is redoubling efforts to strengthen itself and build a competitive advantage. Anything that distracts the management from doing just that will be de-emphasized. The sale of its National Tire and Battery unit is a step in that direction.
Bill Dreher
There's very little excuse for anyone posting weak sales right now, ... If that is happening, it because of company specific excuses. The macro environment overall is very strong. The first month of the quarter got a stellar start and that usually put a lock on the rest of the quarter. Retailers should post improved earnings going forward.
Bill Dreher
Clearly the last 10 days before Christmas were very strong and allowed retailers to achieve their sales plans for the month despite the lack of aggressive promotions we saw in 2002.
Bill Dreher
Wal-Mart's EPS growth is twice that of the SP. For the third consecutive year it has seen an increase in operating margins and we believe it still has tremendous growth opportunity over the next 5 to 10 years both domestically and abroad. At the very least, this should allow the stock to come off the low-end of the trading range and move higher.
Bill Dreher
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