Bill Dreher Quotes (50 Quotes)

Wal-Mart and Target continue to prove that they can operate well in this challenging retail environment and deliver profits despite modest to weak sales results.

The same issues which are depressing the consumer confidence numbers are going to depress holiday sales, ... Christmas is going to show up this year as it shows up every year. The question is, how generous are people going to be Are they going to go whole hog and return to the decadent spending levels of three or four years ago No, clearly not. People are going to be buying toys, but how many presents they buy, how wide that circle of gift giving is really is in question.

Clearly the last 10 days before Christmas were very strong and allowed retailers to achieve their sales plans for the month despite the lack of aggressive promotions we saw in 2002.

There's very little excuse for anyone posting weak sales right now, ... If that is happening, it because of company specific excuses. The macro environment overall is very strong. The first month of the quarter got a stellar start and that usually put a lock on the rest of the quarter. Retailers should post improved earnings going forward.

All the department stores we talked to admit quite clearly it's an unprecedented environment, and they have no direct comparison in being able to plan. It makes their job very, very difficult.

I think there's a lot of confusion about the state of the consumer. We had weak numbers in January. February sales were pushed down by horrible weather, and now March could be weak because of the Easter shift. It's difficult to see how things are going to turn out.

Any retailer who could not surpass expectations last month has to have company-specific problems. September was simply a stellar month.

We believe this update is a combination of management's typical conservatism and sales sluggishness from the unusually warm weather,

Is all this a solution for the bigger concerns of the American consumers or the local gas station owner No. But it is an example of the company trying to show its heart in the right place.

The announcement by Neiman Marcus...makes us as concerned as we have ever been that this Christmas will be extremely lackluster, ... It appears now the high-end consumer is beginning to scale back their purchases, which does not bode well for the holiday season. This type of thing is clearly going to have an impact on other high-end retailers.

While integration risk is always the greatest concern with mergers, we have a high comfort level that the (Federated) game plan is achievable.

They're telling us to pull our number down by 4 cents (per share).

We're not out of the woods yet. Forty percent of holiday sales are wrapped up in the week before Christmas.

The shopper appears to be in mid-season form with the holiday season just having started.

Wal-Mart's cautious comments are warranted, ... Even though its problems are not company-specific, it does bode badly for the profits and sales across the retail chain in the back half of the year.

Historically, Wal-Mart has only been concerned about the consumer. But 12 years ago, Wal-Mart began to woo the investor and sponsored fieldtrips to their headquarters. These were tremendously successful,

The companies that are seeing strong gross margin improvements are getting it not from improving their merchandising mix, but from improved buying. Retailers like Wal-Mart and Target are lowering their cost of acquiring products. Sears on the other hand, continues to struggle with the turnaround of its department stores and problems with its credit card unit.

He (Lacy) was dealing with a deceitful department head who sounds like he was hiding some bad news, ... Our feeling is Alan Lacy is being very forthcoming and straightforward with the problems, and is tackling them very aggressively. But we're not convinced that's going to be enough to immediately restore investor confidence in shares.

We believe this will have a negative impact on February sales for the majority of our retailers as the much colder weather will likely impede store traffic, and sales of spring merchandise sets that are now in stores may be impacted.

Wal-Mart has made it very clear that the prospects for this holiday are much stronger than the conventional wisdom would have had it.

They're trying to create the perception on Wall Street that inventories are in great shape, but how much of that is true sales of merchandise and how much is just accounting

We have always been skeptical of their reverting back to their blue light roots in the stores and on the Web, ... Instead of emphasizing every-day low prices, it appears to emphasize one-time grab-bag bargains, which is not what the consumer wants right now.

Kohl's is having a major disconnect with its customers. The company's inventory growth is outpacing sales and I think their problems will continue into the fourth quarter and even the first quarter next year.

In the game of chicken between retailers and consumers, with one looking to improve profit margins and the other holding out for discounts, it would appear that the consumer blinked. The initial read on the fourth quarter is that profits should come in better than anticipated.

They are admitting they have very cloudy visibility on the very critical holiday season. What might be more significant to investors is that even though they had an admittedly superb second quarter, where are we going from here

I don't think it's a Wal-Mart problem. It's a demographic problem. If you were focused on the moderate-income sector, you were disappointed.

We knew today was going to be a disaster. What surprises us was how bad it was was.

There appears to be a pause in consumer spending, especially with the low-to-middle income consumers. The slowing sales also counterbalance positive economic data that show rising income and confidence levels and oil prices coming down. As far as sales go, this is a period where the consumer is taking a break.

Investors have been skeptical about the health of the U.S. consumer, and will use this to take profits.

Department stores are already focusing on rejecting shipments from vendors that they ordered. They are also looking to promote inventory they already have in hand. As we get through the season, department stores are going to be brutal in throwing merchandise back to vendors.

Wal-Mart is a more mature company today and is showing its willingness to be more open with the press, ... From investors' point of view, this is very good news. All the negative publicity has pressured the stock. Maybe this move will help take away some of that 'headline' risk acting on the stock.

The tire business did break even on a cash basis but not on a full-loaded cost basis, or the total costs incurred to run that business.

Consumers were not in the holiday spirit up until the last week of the holiday season, when there was a mad rush for the store, ... And the big unknown is the result of that game of chicken, where shoppers waited until the last minute to get the best bargains and retailers held off.

Given the severity of the storm, we expect that stores in the affected areas could lose up to two days of sales as roads were nearly impossible to navigate.

Wal-Mart's management is rather conservative, but it sounds upbeat about the future. I'm very confident that if the economy improves, the company could surpass its own guidance for the rest of the year.

Alternatively, the offer could generate additional interest from outside parties, like private equity companies, thus driving Sears Canada's shares.

The stock is manipulated by perceptions of the future, and investors are very concerned right now that the economy is weaker than we thought. Wal-Mart is doing a superb job. On other the hand, the stock is vulnerable.

It appears that the greatest factor for our retailers slowdown up until now had been the unseasonably warm weather, and as soon as we got more seasonally appropriate temperatures it unleashed pent up demand.

It's clear that the company is redoubling efforts to strengthen itself and build a competitive advantage. Anything that distracts the management from doing just that will be de-emphasized. The sale of its National Tire and Battery unit is a step in that direction.

Even Wal-Mart, with their superior systems, their ability to analyze information, being able to predict sales down to the SKU and generate customer profiles, doesn't have good visibility of what's going on in 2001, which makes us concerned about the guys who don't have that ability,

Retailers that are not catering that well to the middle- and upper-income customers are going to have a tough time.

We believe our competitors have shown irrational exuberance with Christmas forecasts, ... We believe the average consumer is worried about higher gasoline prices, jobs and doesn't believe he will benefit from the stock market. With this climate, if you're just a 'me-too' retailer, you'll be in a world of hurt. The department stores will suffer but the discounters Wal-Mart and Target will do well.

There has been real concern for the last several months about hurricanes, about consumer sentiment, about gasoline inflation hurting consumer spending,

It was very clear to us that ... this year's annual meeting had a new, more sober tone. In the past, (Wal-Mart management) was willing to accept their shortcomings, though some might say it was closer to false modesty. This year, it was very clear that management realizes they have a lot of work to do and are deep into the transition.

It's clear that Wal-Mart is going to offer very sharp price discounts to drive customer traffic. While fourth-quarter sales will be respectable, the lower prices necessary to drive traffic will filter through to earnings that are below the current consensus estimates.

Wal-Mart's EPS growth is twice that of the SP. For the third consecutive year it has seen an increase in operating margins and we believe it still has tremendous growth opportunity over the next 5 to 10 years both domestically and abroad. At the very least, this should allow the stock to come off the low-end of the trading range and move higher.

The company endorsed consensus analysts' estimates of a 15 percent EPS growth in the new fiscal year,

I think high-end retail sales will get a boost from this news.

The news we got today was incrementally negative, even for the best operators out there. And clearly this does not bode well for a strong holiday season.

Discount stores have really become an increasing portion of consumers' expenditures. Now there's talk of fluctuating energy prices, job layoffs, and people are looking for the best value possible, ... So we believe the discount stores are going to benefit disproportionately from the tax rebate. We expect Wal-Mart will be the leader in July.