The same issues which are depressing the consumer confidence numbers are going to depress holiday sales, ... Christmas is going to show up this year as it shows up every year. The question is, how generous are people going to be Are they going to go whole hog and return to the decadent spending levels of three or four years ago No, clearly not. People are going to be buying toys, but how many presents they buy, how wide that circle of gift giving is really is in question.
More Quotes from Bill Dreher:
They are admitting they have very cloudy visibility on the very critical holiday season. What might be more significant to investors is that even though they had an admittedly superb second quarter, where are we going from hereBill Dreher
We have always been skeptical of their reverting back to their blue light roots in the stores and on the Web, ... Instead of emphasizing every-day low prices, it appears to emphasize one-time grab-bag bargains, which is not what the consumer wants right now.
Bill Dreher
Even Wal-Mart, with their superior systems, their ability to analyze information, being able to predict sales down to the SKU and generate customer profiles, doesn't have good visibility of what's going on in 2001, which makes us concerned about the guys who don't have that ability,
Bill Dreher
It's clear that Wal-Mart is going to offer very sharp price discounts to drive customer traffic. While fourth-quarter sales will be respectable, the lower prices necessary to drive traffic will filter through to earnings that are below the current consensus estimates.
Bill Dreher
Department stores are already focusing on rejecting shipments from vendors that they ordered. They are also looking to promote inventory they already have in hand. As we get through the season, department stores are going to be brutal in throwing merchandise back to vendors.
Bill Dreher
Is all this a solution for the bigger concerns of the American consumers or the local gas station owner No. But it is an example of the company trying to show its heart in the right place.
Bill Dreher
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