Avery Shenfeld Quotes (13 Quotes)

Given all the leverage that the household sector has built up, their confidence in rising home equity has been an important part of their willingness to take on all that (mortgage) debt.

We expect the combination of a U. S. growth moderation and the lagged impacts of a strong Canadian dollar on factory employment to do a lot of the work in engineering that cooling in Canadian hiring, leaving the Bank of Canada with only another 50 basis points in rate hikes.

In Canada, CPI inflation will be everywhere in energy, and nowhere in anything else, mirroring what we saw in the U.S. figures for September.

If markets felt the Bank of Canada was going to press on with rate hikes after the Fed stopped, that could fuel an overheated Canadian dollar, providing too much of a braking force on exports.

Although financial markets have confidently priced-in a May rate hike, low core inflation implies that the case for risking growth by pushing rates higher is far from clear. If, as we expect, the economy were to show signs of a slowing by May, the Fed will want to give it the benefit of the doubt by standing pat at that point.

This was a month in which a number of one-time events conspired to mask the true strength of the economy.

Today's statement ups the odds that the Bank of Canada will be back again with a 25 bp (basis point) 'Christmas present' in December.

The Bank of Canada remains on the warpath against inflation in an economy where recent job and production gains are, in its view, too much of a good thing.

These confidence surveys are reflecting what people are reading -- that the economy is not creating jobs. It doesn't mean that people are not spending.

It's now evident that the US economy is headed for a very brisk first-quarter growth pace, with our above-consensus 4.8 percent real GDP forecast looking, if anything, too conservative.

Looking only at 'affected areas' could understate the storm impacts, due to linkages between ports and more distant facilities.... we know that jobless claims have fallen off sharply as we moved past the storm impacts, another hint of underlying labor market vitality.

It's pretty clear after (stronger than expected) third quarter GDP numbers they are going to hike in December, and the odds of a hike in January are rising, but they could still take a pause in January if core inflation doesn't heat up,

All told, a fairly strong reading that will only buttress the Bank of Canada's case for remaining hawkish.