We expect the combination of a U. S. growth moderation and the lagged impacts of a strong Canadian dollar on factory employment to do a lot of the work in engineering that cooling in Canadian hiring, leaving the Bank of Canada with only another 50 basis points in rate hikes.
More Quotes from Avery Shenfeld:
It's now evident that the US economy is headed for a very brisk first-quarter growth pace, with our above-consensus 4.8 percent real GDP forecast looking, if anything, too conservative.Avery Shenfeld
It's pretty clear after (stronger than expected) third quarter GDP numbers they are going to hike in December, and the odds of a hike in January are rising, but they could still take a pause in January if core inflation doesn't heat up,
Avery Shenfeld
In Canada, CPI inflation will be everywhere in energy, and nowhere in anything else, mirroring what we saw in the U.S. figures for September.
Avery Shenfeld
Although financial markets have confidently priced-in a May rate hike, low core inflation implies that the case for risking growth by pushing rates higher is far from clear. If, as we expect, the economy were to show signs of a slowing by May, the Fed will want to give it the benefit of the doubt by standing pat at that point.
Avery Shenfeld
Given all the leverage that the household sector has built up, their confidence in rising home equity has been an important part of their willingness to take on all that (mortgage) debt.
Avery Shenfeld
These confidence surveys are reflecting what people are reading -- that the economy is not creating jobs. It doesn't mean that people are not spending.
Avery Shenfeld
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