This liquidation has been so sharp, so severe, not just in this last quarter, but over the past year, that even with a modest pickup in demand, production is almost bound to increase as we move through the balance of this year.
More Quotes from Wayne Ayers:
They're acknowledging reality. They're saying, 'We'll do what we have to do if future events warrant,' but I still don't think they plan on doing anything anytime soon.Wayne Ayers
Inventories are at rock-bottom levels -- even if economic growth slows in the fourth quarter, those inventories will have to be rebuilt, otherwise businesses risk losing business.
Wayne Ayers
I'm not sure Taylor has the political savvy for the job. Greenspan had been in Washington a long time and had a solid reputation. It was no surprise when Volcker was replaced by Greenspan because he was the obvious choice waiting in the wings.
Wayne Ayers
We're nowhere close to the Japanese example. When you have real deflation as they have in Japan, consumers expect prices to be lower, and they defer purchases, which makes the spiral worse. That's not an apt description of what the American consumer has been doing.
Wayne Ayers
The Fed is being very serious when it says this labor market remains exceptionally weak -- in fact, it's the weakest since World War II, by many measures. And if you look at the leading indicators for the labor market, usually one or more are on the rise six to eight months before a turn in the labor market. Right now, none are on the rise.
Wayne Ayers
To me, the business cycle is working as it always does, absent an external shock. Inventory liquidation means firms have to increase production, and they're already doing that. They're also increasing the length of the work week and hiring temporary workers. All these things support income and spending.
Wayne Ayers
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