To me, the business cycle is working as it always does, absent an external shock. Inventory liquidation means firms have to increase production, and they're already doing that. They're also increasing the length of the work week and hiring temporary workers. All these things support income and spending.
More Quotes from Wayne Ayers:
The Fed is being very serious when it says this labor market remains exceptionally weak -- in fact, it's the weakest since World War II, by many measures. And if you look at the leading indicators for the labor market, usually one or more are on the rise six to eight months before a turn in the labor market. Right now, none are on the rise.Wayne Ayers
I suspect they will not have a neutral bias they will indicate risks are on the downside. I think we will, on the production side, see better numbers in the second half of this year, but I don't expect any convincing improvement in the labor market before early next year.
Wayne Ayers
It's clear the consumer has progressively turned more cautious and conservative. Given that, and given that business capital spending has yet to come back, how long can this recovery keep on going These numbers certainly make that a legitimate question.
Wayne Ayers
The good news is that this is going to go directly to the corporate bottom line. That's a real plus for profits, which means a real plus for corporate spending and the recovery going forward.
Wayne Ayers
Inventories are at rock-bottom levels -- even if economic growth slows in the fourth quarter, those inventories will have to be rebuilt, otherwise businesses risk losing business.
Wayne Ayers
I find it strange that we had one of the biggest declines in employment in almost two years and no one noticed, and I'm sure they're thinking the same way over there at the Fed.
Wayne Ayers
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