The anecdotal evidence of the beige book seems to confirm what all these economic reports have been saying.
More Quotes from Wayne Ayers:
The second half will show some better growth. Will that be sustained past the second half For that, two things have to happen we have to see a pickup in business spending, and the labor market has to stabilize and improve, creating permanent employment. We don't expect to see that until year-end.Wayne Ayers
The good news is that this is going to go directly to the corporate bottom line. That's a real plus for profits, which means a real plus for corporate spending and the recovery going forward.
Wayne Ayers
It's unclear what lower rates would do. If it's really true that productivity and structural changes are causing labor market weakness, it's not clear that another cut in rates would be helpful to the labor market.
Wayne Ayers
I think (Fed Chairman) Alan Greenspan has made it all but official, we'll get another rate cut in June, but my guess is a quarter point rate cut, principally because of what we're seeing on the inflation report. The CPI and PPI have been trending up over the last two years.
Wayne Ayers
Firms are still pretty cautious, given the experience of the past couple of years. But if firms are going to maintain market share, they will have to be competitive in terms of the goods they offer.
Wayne Ayers
You can't read too much into any one number, but it's a sharp rebound from the lows of October. Given that and a few other things, the bond market's more recent expectation is that the Fed, if it's not finished, is close to being finished.
Wayne Ayers
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