If it's 25 basis points and the bias is neutral, they're going to sell it off. If it's 50 basis points and neutral, they'll sell it off. You'll probably see a smaller bout of selling if it's 50 points, because although that would mean the economy is doing worse than we've thought, it would also signal that the Fed is not going to cut again for a while.
More Quotes from Tom Schrader:
We've got some weighty numbers tomorrow, with consumer sentiment and Chicago PMI due.Tom Schrader
The payroll data Friday is going to be the big swing factor. Ahead of that, I would expect that we could drift a little higher, but nothing too substantial.
Tom Schrader
A lot of the reason for the rally is that people think that everything's on the table. You saw a knee-jerk reaction this morning, with people selling on an initial reaction to the news, Europe being down so much and some weak earnings, like Kraft.
Tom Schrader
Everyone's always concerned about inflationary pressures, and the CPI will certainly give us a hint about that on the consumer side,
Tom Schrader
I'm trying to stay positive but it's really hard. I guess one silver lining is that October, historically, has often been a period when we've been able to put in a good bottom and see real capitulation. We've already hit several lows this month and from a technical standpoint, it looks like because we are at such extreme levels, we really could see some sort of rally before the end of the year.
Tom Schrader
They'll be looking at the PPI with a real hard eye for what inflation is going to be.
Tom Schrader
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