Vince Farrell Quotes (74 Quotes)

Everyone expects that Mr. Greenspan is going to eventually drop the word measured, so as to prepare the market for upping rate hikes at a faster pace in the future. That's going to be the key next week, whether he takes the word out or not.

I don't know where the market's going to go but I know that the market's priced for perfection and there are potentially some imperfect things happening, and not just Kosovo.

But nobody wants to hear about gains over the next couple of years,

You can't guess. The decade of the '80s (for example) was a decade of great wealth creation and it averaged 17 percent a year, ... But if you missed 40 of the best days, your return was around 3 percent.

I think today, at worst, the Fed might tilt towards a tightening. But if they don't, if they keep policy unchanged, I would expect you would see . . . the bond market should rally significantly too.

Gore is putting himself as the populist candidate to fight against those big companies. You'd have to say Wall Street, right now, views Gore with fear and trepidation because he's attacked those industries in his campaign. What's been very strong has been healthcare so healthcare stocks are telling you Bush is going to win. Money managers are putting their money up front.

I think you ought to take advantage of whatever rally, if you have one today, to trim whatever holdings you have that may be a disproportionate percentage in your portfolio. You know, I've been negative on the very richly priced high tech, not all tech, but the very richly priced high tech, and I don't think it is too late to sell these.

The market has been choppy because it's trying to figure out where oil prices are going to go, how fast interest rates will rise, and what these two things mean for corporate profits. It's going to remain choppy until it gets more clarity.

GM and Ford rattled the hedge fund trade, brought back memories of Long-Term Capital, ... That's why the bank stocks were weak.

I think they should be very, very cautious. There's no rush but if you have some cash, now is the time buy selectively, ... I believe we're going to have a very quiet August but there's an old rule Never sell short a dull market because you usually get pretty good rallies.

All the bad news is not out yet, and I don't know if we're going to have another round of estimate reductions because the economy seems to be falling away far faster than any of us would expect.

Both Farrell and Eisen forecast that the major indexes will be caught in the current trading range for some time. I think there will be extraordinary volatility day to day, ... but at the end of a month or the end of the quarter, very little net change. My guess is that the averages will finish slightly up on the year, because usually you don't have more than two down years in a row.

I think we have to wait until 2002 for the Fed's rate cuts to take hold and stocks generally move ahead of the economy,

With more and more people going online, you're going to need more power, ... That means Intel's going to sell more chips. I think you want to own Intel for the next couple of years because it is the engine of the Internet.

I don't think the Fed is going to raise rates . . . just because of a report the Fed is worried about it. I don't see any sign of inflation.

Hughes and Delphi add up to over 40 a share in value then you're buying the auto company for 80 minus the 40, or about 40 bucks.

Oddly, it was sparked when Lucent's chairman said they were going to be profitable, believe it or not. And then what happened it seemed that the basic industry stocks started to do somewhat better.

I don't think having your former chairman become vice president is going to hurt your company, if that were to come to be,

I was really encouraged by yesterday's move, ... I don't know about the average - the average is in the process of bottoming - but it may well be that the average can kind of bottom out, individual stocks are going to go off on their own, up or down.

I think the Fed is done hiking, but this economy has shown great resilience, so it's far too early to call for a decline in interest rates. I think the Fed's out of the picture for now,

The Fed's worried about the economy overheating, ... I think the Fed would be thrilled if the financial sector took a deep breath. I think we all should be thrilled.

Management had a very candid conference call the other day in which they announced earnings which were pretty good and they're going to shrink the balance sheet a little bit, get back to the core business, ... They announced a 30 million share repurchase program. The stock is trading at about nine times (earnings). I think it looks pretty good.

What the stock market is telling you is that the economy and corporate profits are going to recover sooner than thought.

Everybody's going to continue to warn, but you have to try and put that noise aside. And we've been putting our toe back in the water, as I've mentioned to you, on technology,

We had a wonderful day yesterday, and our biggest position is CIT Group, which was taken out by Tyco International,

I like the guys that are located in Bermuda, because they have a tax advantage, ... All three are trading very close to book value, all three are trading between eight and 10 times earnings. I'm early on these, but I think we're going to have significant gains over the next couple of years.

I like the fact that it's almost done. They are finally doing something but for seven years, the Japanese have not gotten it.

I don't think bank stocks are going to plummet, and I think you probably should take advantage of the weakness to start to add to your portfolio,

Its earnings don't change that much, its only our perception of the earnings that change.

It's starting to feed on itself, which is the anxiety which marks the bottom.

I hope when the Internet bubble bursts -- and it will burst because all these manias eventually do burst -- what I am hoping is when it bursts it does not spill back over into the market.

AIG trades at a market multiple, and it is indeed the best insurance company in the world, in my opinion. But financial stocks rarely, if ever, trade at market multiples,

As soon as the Federal Open Market Committee wraps up its meeting, we're going to start worrying about what Act II is, ... Will Mr. (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan have to raise rates again We'll kind of go back into the whole soup all over again.

The data's mixed on the economic side but we have absolutely no confidence whatsoever when profits start to grow. And I think we need that before the market can improve.

People lost money last year and now they have to pay the tax bill -- 'They're saying I lost money and now I have to write a check.' They're not thinking about earnings or warnings.

I don't know if you could say definitively we're in a recession yet, ... I think the markets have been hoping for a three-quarter-point cut. And I believe this is going to take the wind out of a rally.

You're not going to get rich by Tuesday, it's going to take a long time, ... Don't quit your day job and don't expose yourself to levels of risk you can't tolerate.

The cycle of capital spending is behind them. They spent a whole lot of money the past couple of years buying or refitting their locomotives, which is a very expensive proposition, ... So you're going to find free cash flow in these companies, rising earning because the economy does well and they're trading at only about 12 times earnings.

I like financial stocks, but not banks, ... As a rule you have to be very cautious, because if the economy is softening, you don't know the extent of the loan loss reserves they're going to have to ante up for loans that go bad in a soft economy.

Gee, maybe there's some risk in the equity market and maybe I should put it on the sidelines in cash or into fixed income for a little while.

I think there is an era of optimism that pervades the financial community in the United States. There's just this feeling that stocks are going to go up, and up, and up.

So, I think when you're at that sort of multiple level, there's very little you can do to fulfill the expectation and an awful lot that can happen that will disappoint investors and give you significant downside risks, ... Having said that, a lot of stocks in the tech sector are trading at multiples that are within a coffee cup visit of their growth rate. And I think that might make a whole lot of sense.

Most of the exploratory dollars are going to go to the great big prospects. And I think this will really impact the oil service companies' ability to continue their profit growth.

Right now Fannie Mae is trading at a price to earnings multiple that is below its growth rate, yet Fannie Mae is one of seven companies in the SP 500 that's grown its earnings double digit for the past 13 years.

I think the market tends to rally in front of a Fed meeting, ... I think what is going to happen is no action (to raise rates), hawkish comments and the rally fades, because what you then have to turn your attention to is what will earnings be. If growth goes from 5.5 percent to 3.5 percent, earnings are going to slow.

They may or may not have exposure to the hurricanes depending on where their business is written, ... But it's psychologically a good time to move in, because that's when these stocks tend to be toward their bottoms, and indeed they are right now.

I kind of want to shut my eyes and buy these things and...a year or two from now, Im going to make significant gains regardless of what the market does in the interim,

We've been building to this for some time, ... The economy is in a slowdown but it's not in a terrible situation.

I would be reluctant to liquidate positions, because I really do think that the next big, big move in the market is still up, ... I just think there's some noise between now and then.

We had a euphoric day yesterday because the market thinks Mr. Greenspan is going to be benign today,