John Kilduff Quotes (51 Quotes)

Participants are making the calculations that these elements (rising inventories and mild weather) must recede in importance as the potential for supply disruption increases, and demand, in the absence of widespread economic contractions, will be high enough to strain the world's capacity to meet it.

A large swath of U.S. demand was taken out of the market as a result of Katrina. The EIA report shows that U.S. demand growth will decline by 40 percent. Overall inventories are still healthy.

The IEA report reminds us that there could be a supply problem in the fourth quarter. Storm damage and the chemical workers strike in France are going to hurt supply. Given the levels we have fallen from, prices are beginning to look like a bargain.

When prices are at these heights you need fresh worrisome news to keep us moving higher. Crude inventories are swelling globally. We'll be paying attention to gasoline because there is a question about supplies as summer approaches.

The LOOP is incredibly important right now. If it is not up soon there will be a spillover for refineries in the Midwest, which could run out of crude quickly. This could lead to gasoline shortages in the weeks ahead.

With winter speeding by, there isn't much time left to generate significant demand. Unless several weeks of sustained cold materialize over the next two months or so, supply should be more than adequate. This could weigh heavily on prices if this condition persists into the restocking season after April 1st.

Basically, some easing of the tension vis a vis the Iran situation helped to take some of the worries out of the market in term of potential supply disruption from that country.

There was a late wave a selling at the end of the day.

And the refinery utilization rate is also a disappointment. It came in only at 84, and right before the hurricanes, we were upwards of 95.

The threats remind us of how tight the supply-demand balance is. These threats can't be dealt with there just isn't enough spare capacity, so prices are moving higher and will continue to do so.

What we're hearing sounds similar to the run-up to the invasion of Iraq.

Apparently, the immediacy of a surplus trumps geopolitics, for a day or two anyway. The next two days will focus on stockpiles and moderating weather, then, as the weekend approaches, the focus will widen again to the world.

There were very weak fundamentals before this sell-off. The failure to make above 10 generated a lot of selling.

You can never underestimate the potential for OPEC to do the wrong thing and push prices with their rhetoric or actions.

It has taken a lot of worry out of the forward looking supply situation.

We're on a hair trigger.

You have to believe at this point that the new Iranian president is willing to use oil as a weapon, if only for a symbolic week or two to create a crisis, exact some concessions from the West and then defuse the situation.

Currently, there is adequate supply to contend with what remains of winter, particularly if mild weather persists.

In the short term, the market remains caught between the downward influence of growing stockpiles and the potential for a supply disruptive event to suddenly appear, bolstering buyers.

Iraq is slipping further towards civil war.

In the absence of a new supply threat or dangerous geopolitical shift, holders of length will become increasingly nervous and reluctant to hold positions much longer. This is the core of our belief in a correction.

There's conflicting weather models on that (approaching storm),

Oil should move lower because of the build in product supplies and the rapid disappearance of winter-weather worries. The continued fall in natural gas should also help pull all energy contracts lower.

There's pre-holiday buying taking place. In Iraq and elsewhere things are percolating. The market will be shut four days, and in this geopolitical situation it makes sense to cover positions and bets.

A large consuming area in the Midwest is going to experience a relatively significant degree of cold weather, and that is going to help support these prices.

Prices in the coming weeks will remain extremely reactive to the various weather forecasts, especially the changes in the forward-looking six-10 day forecasts.

We're staring down the barrel of a policy problem that's causing this situation for consumers. They should have been given more time.

It now looks like the next hurricane will miss the Gulf refining region. The storm may do significant damage to Florida though, which would further hit the economy.

With distillate stocks at a 14-million-barrel surplus, the forecast for colder temperatures isn't providing much support. It is too little, too late.

The moderate weather is really helping push prices lower. As long as the oil keeps coming and demand languishes I see no reason for prices to rise.

Demand was down nationwide, partly because drivers were off the road in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi because of Katrina, and obviously because high prices are helping to discourage demand.

Iran asserted that it will retaliate to sanctions and is now showing a willingness to share nuclear research with its neighbors. Exxon raised the threat level in Nigeria. If their output is lost on top of what's already down, we'll miss about 1 million barrels of irreplaceable oil.

The attackers ended up hitting well short of any infrastructure. There was also a big step forward toward solving the Iranian nuclear crisis this weekend. As the waters calm the price of oil falls.

We're worried about two things as we sit here at the beginning of November natural gas inventories and heating oil inventories, which make up part of that distillate number,

Apparently, the market does not believe a turn to colder temperatures will boost heating demand enough to make a significant dent in supplies. Obviously some other supply disruption may have to occur to take the pressure off prices.

The hangover from the damage done by Ivan is still on everybody's mind. We're still in that mode where any bullish news is tremendously bullish even if it's slight.

Natural gas is the one commodity here that I have very little to say about in the way of good news.

We are at levels that in the past several years had caused gasoline prices to approach the 1.70-type national average record levels.

There's no telling how high prices of gasoline prices could go, at least for a time. Four dollars or higher is not out of the realm of possibility.

We must also note the rising concern of complications with the implementation of new US gasoline rules and supposedly some complications from the rising use of ethanol, as those situations are clearly prompting speculative buying.

We are looking at the resurgence of the security premium. The Iranian situation is worsening. The U. S. attack in Pakistan, and the likelihood of further trouble in Nigeria are horrible news for consumers.

A significant amount of refined products will remain off the market for some time to come, and will prevent heating oil and gasoline stockpiles from being replenished, at least for the next few weeks,

Even though natural-gas prices don't have a direct link to current geopolitical uncertainties, it has to make those holding short positions more than a bit anxious.

The biggest disappointment is that oil is not getting out of the north which is supposed to be Kurdish-controlled.

The separatists in Nigeria could further disable crude- oil output in that country at any moment, increasing the supply- fear premium.

Heating oil has fallen below a critical support level, the 200-day moving average. This is a seminal technical point for traders.

We will be keeping an eye on Nigeria, Iran and even Iraq. The Nigerian news failed to spark a rally today. We've become a bit jaded.

We are in assessment mode right now. We are still trying to get a better picture of when refineries will be back up and production in the Gulf is restored.

Prices are going to be driven directly by the projected path of the storm,

This condition will last through the New Year and has given the technical picture a decidedly negative bias. Any bargain hunters have certainly been given pause by yesterday's action, although the low volume probably exacerbated the downdraft.