Joel Naroff Quotes (129 Quotes)

Consumer confidence is faltering, there is talk of war with Iraq and we have just come through the emotional first anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks. August should not have been a good month for retailers, but it sure looks like it was.

if we have a financial crisis of one form or another, do we have the confidence that this person has the experience to handle it well

They're faced with what is probably a moderation in growth, but a slow acceleration in inflation. The question is, where does inflation go from here I think that will be the driving factor, because I don't think growth is going to stay this slow.

Given the sharp falloff in vehicle sales, the modest decline in overall spending was actually very good news,

Despite all the layoffs that are occurring, businesses are still moving forward, ... They're out there looking for workers, and they may be forced to raise the wages just a touch faster.

A rebound to solid levels would indicate today's report was not the start of a trend, ... Another month near these levels would create some concern about the strength of the housing sector.

Whatever impacts Katrina had in September were wiped out in October and the nation's service and construction industries are moving ahead smartly,

Trade will be restraining growth.

Firms should be experiencing significant easing in cost pressures as the weak commodity prices are adding to the strong productivity gains, which are keeping labor costs down. Now if demand would only pick up a bit, the earnings would go right to the bottom line.

Like the rest of us, business leaders cannot figure out what will happen if war breaks out, and making business plans in such an unclear environment is quite difficult.

Americans shopped the world's markets until we dropped. We bought a lot more of everything, including capital and consumer goods, foods and motor vehicles.

The huge increases at apparel and general merchandise stores are eye-opening. You would think people had nothing to do but get to the malls.

Consumers may have throttled back a touch in February, but given the weather and all they had spent the previous few months, we cannot conclude that consumption is faltering.

We need more jobs. It is accurate to say that job growth has returned, but it is not at an acceptable level, ... We need over 200,000 a month to feel good about the sustainability of the expansion. That may be coming, but it is not here yet.

The ... report makes it clear that, without the treats given to us by tax cuts and low interest rates, consumers are on their own, ... Let's just hope they don't trick us and slow spending sharply.

The rate increases will start off slowly, but if inflation keeps accelerating, all bets are off afterward.

Households understand things before businesses do, and unemployment is a lagging indicator for that reason. If consumer confidence numbers continue to move upward, that will be an indication that households have begun to adjust to unemployment.

What he's saying is not necessarily in opposition to the idea that the labor market may be stabilizing, but he's raising a warning flag, ... If we don't see layoffs get any worse, then they're actually getting a lot better -- that's critical information.

While we can be somewhat blase about goods prices, at least for a little while longer, we cannot conclude that retail inflation is anywhere near under control.

Energy costs are off but still high and everywhere else prices are rising. Inflation is not out of control, but it is not tame either.

The numbers we're getting all indicate that the economy has maintained a large amount of momentum and that's obviously a concern to the Fed and will likely force their hand.

But inflationary pressures are not going away, so the Fed will likely raise rates tomorrow and on December 13th and early next year,

Not only is the manufacturing sector back up and running, but investment activity is beginning to pick up as well, ... There are some weak sectors remaining, but they are extremely few and far between.

Now, if we can get a really good employment growth number on Friday, something I think is a real possibility, even that enigmatic curmudgeon who controls monetary policy might start to lighten up a bit,

There is no inflation, unless you drive a vehicle, heat your home, use medical services, have a child in college, use cable, insure anything or smoke.

The economic recovery sure looks to be here, but once Fed officials recognize that fact, rates, including the fed funds rate, could jump, ... That is the box the FOMC has gotten itself into with their statement that policy accommodation can be maintained for 'a considerable period.'

Now gasoline prices are breaking 3 a gallon. If we stay here or go higher in the fall, that would begin to put the holiday shopping season at risk.

Manufacturing seems to be accelerating into the potential war situation, and that is a positive signal that this time the recovery will be long-lasting.

Cold weather and a rebound in oil production helped power a strong gain in output.

If you live in the real world, inflation is not as tame as the members of the Fed monetary policy committee would like us to believe.

You're seeing a situation where the consumers are spending every penny they possibly can and borrowing on top of that.

There is always concern (among some U.S. citizens) of foreigners owning things. The downside is that they take profits out of the business. It goes overseas. That's their right as owners of the business. But we own an awful lot of businesses around the world as well. We've got to recognize that fact.

As far as inflation goes, this was as good as you could possibly get.

The new Fed chair will be tested right off the bat. The economy is slowing, though clearly not as rapidly as the headline number would have you think. ...At the same time, inflation is slowly accelerating.

This level of growth should lead to a further tightening of the labor market and that could power faster wage gains.

The stunning drop in import and export prices in October is the clearest indication that economies around the world, not just in the United States, were hit hard by the Sept. 11 tragedy.

If spending holds up and job gains continue, even if they are nothing great, rates will likely not be reduced, ... If the labor market turns negative and households put away their wallets, the Fed will undoubtedly react.

We are starting to get early estimates of the impacts of Katrina and they are ugly.

The cost pressures on businesses slowed in February, which is a good thing, given that the ability to pass the higher expenses through to consumers remains limited. But a careful reading of the details paints a troublesome picture.

With growth remaining strong, the debate at the Fed over when to stop may start including a discussion about whether some braking should be done.

What we are basically looking at is an economy that is not very different from the economy last year. Depending on your industry and depending on your business, if you liked last year, you will probably like this year.

The report simply does not point to any immediate sharp rise in inflation. That has to make the Fed members feel good, though I doubt they will get wild and crazy and actually start considering stopping their rate hike program.

Given the condition of housing, Fed policy-makers will not panic if they see a low GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter.

When energy costs stop falling, we may not be looking at such wonderful numbers, ... For now, the Fed can push inflation into the background. But when the economy is back up and running, they may want to revisit the 'inflation is licked' thing.

Businesses are toning down their expectations with investment and hiring this year.

Imports are creating some inflationary pressures but they don't appear to be that great.

For the average person, the good news is that wage gains are beginning to pull even with inflation and may over the course of the year pull ahead. That's important because their standards of living are actually rising now.

Manufacturing has been solid and continues to be so. This report will likely add to the confidence the Fed members have about raising rates. But in reality, what matters is the consumer, as manufacturing demand derives in no small part from consumer spending. That is still an issue.

Not even Mother Nature can slow the housing market.

When Fed policy-makers meet on Oct. 28, they will be looking at a broad-based economic expansion. Will they admit to that ... They are going to have to face reality soon and become tilted toward growth and at least neutral on inflation.