Greg Valliere Quotes (73 Quotes)

I think one sector that could benefit from Republican control would be the health-care sector in general and the drug stocks in particular. I think a fear on Wall Street would dissipate that there could be price controls or some sort of onerous provisions,

I think Friday's number will be impossible to analyze. But everyone said all the numbers this week would be ignored, and the ISM number caused a big sell-off in the bond market.

This idea that the Fed is close to done is very puzzling,

If business had serious objections to him, he wouldn't have been nominated.

I think what we all are hoping for is resolution sooner rather than later. I'm not sure that Gore's speech at noon today would reinforce the belief that this would get wrapped up quickly. (Some) segments of the market will do well whether it's Microsoft or drug stocks, but I think it might be a little bit premature.

I suppose if you wanted to take a sort of off-the-wall view, maybe they're the government trying to negotiate in print. Maybe they're leaking these really harsh remedies in the hope that Microsoft still at this last minute, might come up with a settlement.

I think sometimes after we have this type of party, there is a hangover -- and this comes in '05, ... The new Congress in '05 will make efforts to restrain growth. They may not rescind the tax cuts, but there will be spending restraint. But between now and then, it's just a party.

I really think when you talk about pocketbook issues that affect the electorate, people think about the Nasdaq (composite index) and the Dow Jones (industrial average). If we got another rate hike and the market sold off on that, I think people would be displeased. If there's no rate hike on August 22 and the market rallies, you've got to say that helps (Al) Gore.

I think political strategies now are in agreement that the public doesn't want a big huge change on anything, whether its health care or the contract with the gold standard.

O'Neill's gaffs have hurt him. There aren't a lot of Republicans on the Hill who like him. But he seemed to have the president's confidence,

Are there any real protectionist proposals that have chance of enactment No. The most negative thing I would say is that the prospects for further trade liberalization are not great, but what we've got in place will stay in place.

I think that an awful lot of Democrats feel that it's time to throw in the towel, so it's a guess that he will concede today,

By the middle of the fall, if there's a feeling that the economy has withstood this blow, then Congress might be able to return to a more traditional agenda.

For the people who experience it, it's a tragedy, but for the country as a whole, we can absorb it.

That's the question, certainly, for all our clients on Wall Street. They're resigned to Clinton getting re-elected, but the real issue is if it's not by 10 points, but by 18 or 19 -- if it's the latter, then I think certainly the House will go Democratic, ... The Senate is a tougher case to make, but in a blow out, even the Senate could go.

The next few months are really crucial. If it's clear by the end of winter to most Americans that the economy has turned, the economy won't be a big negative for Bush. But it's a close call.

Even though there's a lot of angst over the budget, a cut of 56 billion over five years, or 40 billion in spending cuts over five years, is pretty mild it's almost a rounding error.

My take is that they know they've got a tough selling job ahead, ... I think they have to sell it (the policies) to Wall Street, to the capital, and to the public. The administration's conclusion is that Snow isn't the best salesperson for the job.

I think William Webster is a man of unquestionable integrity, but he doesn't really understand that business.

There is a new climate in Washington. Even the appearance of impropriety can do in a career.

The Wall Street types want to make the United States attractive for investment, and a strong currency attracts investors.

If the dollar were to threaten below 120 yen again, they'll intervene again. I think they've got to improve their export sector. They've got to export their way out of this.

A lot of actions, like going after the drug companies, will never make it through the House, ... Congress is hawkish, period, and will stay hawkish.

He can afford to tilt at windmills, because he's Warren Buffett. But I doubt he can really influence the Republican leadership.

I think it's bad karma when you start talking down your own currency it smacks of desperation. If this turns into a rout, that will prove that classic adage -- be careful what you wish for.

It the decision is very positive, not just for Microsoft.

He needs to restore investor confidence, ... It's extremely unlikely he would say anything that would be viewed negatively by the markets. He's going to make it clear that we are not looking at the abyss and we are not looking at a major recession.

There's an adage that the Fed cuts or hikes one time too many.

One of the big stories coming out of this is the inability to get anything done in the next two years. Therefore ... the budget surplus is going to pile up dramatically because Congress won't agree on big tax cuts or big spending hikes.

The feeling is that Bush might call for a study, a commission, a blue ribbon panel on tax change, but that, if you start talking about radical tax reform, it becomes a big, fat target for criticism.

The combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus right now is the largest I've seen in years, ... It's good for GDP. If the economy starts to hum, stocks should do well.

The wording of the statement will be very significant does it make it clear that the Fed is prepared to do more. It will be an important clue about what we might get going forward.

You've got a recession in the auto and computer industries, you've got inventories piling up, you've got mediocre consumer spending, you've got a terrible stock market. I think the time to cut rates is now and I think they are in a good position to do it. If the Fed shows tomorrow that they realize this economy needs stimulus, I think it would be a wonderful gift for the stock market.

I think we're very close. ... The White House has put tremendous pressure on the Hill to do something.

There was a lot of speculation around Washington a week ago that something big could come, that the White House needed to trot out something bold ahead of the convention, ... I've talked to several people who've come away from this thinking it's unlikely.

I have argued with great futility that this entire argument is based on a flawed premise. If you use a more realistic GDP assumption, based on what we've seen over the past few decades, Social Security won't go bankrupt.

If I was a member of Congress I'd try to press him on is there a light at the end of the tunnel on measured rate hikes, and at what point the Fed decides enough is enough. You have to think after the August move we probably are in the eighth inning, but I doubt he'll be that explicit.

Members of Congress, especially Republicans, are beginning to realize that around the country, even among their supporters, they're being viewed as dysfunctional, unable to get anything done. So I think the Republicans are starting to come together, at least a little in the Senate on immigration.

Any points the President can score in the market these days are welcome. One of the oldest cliches about the market is that it hates uncertainty, ... And uncertainty has certainly been intensified by the all this public debate over Iraq within Bush's inner circle.

Things aren't as bad as Jason (Furman) said but they're not as good as the labor secretary said, ... The markets clearly were expecting a better number than 96,000. You've got to wonder ... are corporations sending us a signal that the underlying economy is not as good as people thought

We'll probably get more rate cuts tomorrow, but I think you will probably see something on the fiscal side too. You may even get a little more on the tax side. Even Democrats agree that we might need a payroll tax cut,

If this election uncertainty drags on that long, you've got to think the air of uncertainty in the country will infect consumers and consumer spending.

I think Greenspan, last Thursday, really sent a signal that he wants 50 basis points (a half-percentage point), ... By saying that the GDP (gross domestic product) growth is close to zero, he certainly encouraged the belief that we get half a point.

He may be the most conservative president of our lifetime.

I thought there would be something a little gentler. This is very harsh.

It's been a convenient argument with Bush supporters. They'll continue to cite (the household number,) ... The majority of mainstream economists, headed by (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan, look at household data but they think payroll number is more important.

That's a classic move in both parties -- appeal to the base to win primaries, then move to the center in a general election -- and I think he will do that. He will cite his record as governor, which was moderate, especially for Vermont.

I think Greenspan realizes that if he doesn't move tomorrow, he may have to do 50 basis points at the end of January, which could look panicky.

That may be one of reason (the Dow is) 9,800 -- maybe the markets have already begun to worry about the outcome not being known.

That's a commentary that the markets think the bigger concern is the soft patch, not inflation, ... Nobody knows how big a soft patch this is. The key to understanding a lot of this is obviously the price of oil.