Gary Thayer Quotes (72 Quotes)

Growth is still at a healthy level.

The Fed will overlook the strength in the economy before Katrina and focus more on getting the economy back on its feet and probably will hold policy steady until we see how the economy is actually dealing with the shock of lost jobs and high gasoline prices resulting from Katrina.

Still, the decision caught a few economists off guard. I agree with the Fed's view that the hurricane doesn't pose a persistent threat to the economy, ... But I think that if the Fed had held rates steady, the recovery could've been a little smoother, maybe a little faster.

Policy-makers have been worried that rising energy costs could lead to higher prices for other things including higher wages and compensation, but it looks like companies are keeping their employment costs in check.

If you put the two months together it still looks as if retail sales were strong at the beginning of the year -- an average increase of 0.8 percent for each of the two months.

It probably doesn't mean we don't see another rate increase, but it suggests that the Fed is not behind the curve and inflation is not getting out of control.

Along with the rise in non-fuel import prices, this suggests the weaker dollar is taking competitive pressure off of businesses, giving them the extra pricing power they didn't have a couple of years ago.

It's a little softer than expected, but it's not all bad news.

We think the economy is poised to slow down and that's good news for the Federal Reserve.

The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the nonpetroleum items and it looks like what we're still seeing is lower prices for many consumer items.

The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.

The bond market took the GDP number positively, ... It had expected stronger growth and some people may now be reminded that the Fed will not be quick to raise rates.

It speeds up the time that the Fed will probably think about raising rates and that's negative for fixed-income.

We're still weak compared to where we were a year ago, but people are a little bit more optimistic about the future,

We're not seeing a lot of strength in goods and services right now. Sales are mixed. Some categories are doing OK and others are weak. We're not seeing an outright decline.

It suggests the Fed is going to be watching closely to see if it is time to start taking back rate cuts. I don't think he is saying that is imminent, but his tone is that it might be sooner rather than later.

I think it's good news for the economy. When you take away the GM strike and average last month's figures with this month's, you see employment growth at moderate levels, which is good for sustainable growth.

Growth is still at a healthy level. There is no major slowdown.

He's mentioning that the dollar should stay firm and that's been a good factor for our economy. He's been concerned for some time about foreign investors wanting to keep their money here and if we keep our policies in line that should hold for a while.

Looking back, it is understandable why the Australian and New Zealand currencies peaked in early 2005. That was about the same time that the demand for crude oil also started to moderate.

The (February) manufacturing report was a little better than expected, showing continued growth in manufacturing.

The weakness was primarily in the residential area. That's consistent with the other data we've seen recently that suggest that the housing market is cooling off.

Historically, when we see confidence decline, we have to watch and see if it shows up also affecting spending. We'll be watching closely to see ... whether the decline in confidence is more of a psychological factor or a real factor affecting spending.

The good news is that the inflation number was also revised down slightly but is still running higher than we saw a year or so ago,

This report leaves the door open for a rate cut. There's still uncertainty out there, and as a way to sort of offset the uncertainty, the Fed will do more than it may need to do.

(The data are) suggesting the decline we've seen in the dollar over the last couple of years is not having an impact. It suggests the dollar may still need to fall to help narrow the trade deficit. But there's a risk to higher inflation if it does.

We did see a big recovery in (producer) prices, but that was primarily in energy. Core prices increased only modestly and that's good news for the Fed.

These numbers look as if there's no urgent need to raise interest rates much further.

There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.

We've seen, over the past seven months or so, orders stabilize or improve slightly, compared to a big decline last year. Orders are rising relative to inventories, and that's a positive sign for capital spending.

And make no mistake Energy prices are everything these days. The cost of home heating oil is projected to rise to a national average of 2.47 a gallon this winter, a 28.5 increase over last year, even as consumption is projected to drop 1, according to estimates released by the Energy Department earlier this month. Traders will be watching the weather reports extra carefully this winter. The demand for energy has been tempered by high prices, ... but demand could surge again if winter weather turns unusually cold.

We probably won't see good (employment) numbers in the next couple of months because of the loss of jobs in the Gulf Coast region,

So core inflation is still rising slightly but doesn't appear to be a problem, and I think this is good news for the Federal Reserve . With energy prices declining it reduces the risk that fuel costs will be passed on to consumers.

The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.

It's sort of a good news-bad news situation though, because if it gets out of hand, it can create other problems for the economy.

Inflation is creeping up, but it's not out of hand. I think that's pretty important, ... The bond market may have discounted a worst-case scenario over the last couple of months on inflation, and now maybe traders won't have to worry about the Fed moving too fast.

Confidence is up again -- to the highest level in over two years. Consumers are feeling better not only about current conditions, but also about prospects for the future.

The employment component was just a tad lower than what we saw in November so it's still a healthy number.

I wouldn't disagree with some of the things he said, but I don't know why he said those particular things at this time.

The decline in the prices paid component is good news. It looks as if we're seeing some moderation in pricing pressures, but not a significant drop.

The housing market is cooling off, but not too much, and inflation looks relatively benign.

We still have a very weak world economy, despite the fact that the U.S. economy is still doing pretty good, ... We're seeing lower prices basically because there is more production out there than demand.

It still shows a pretty healthy economy at this point. The manufacturing side of things and business spending will be good this year.

We've been seeing improvement in the non-manufacturing side since late last year. We're seeing more activity in the travel sector and others that were hit really hard last year after the terror attacks.

We're still in a seasonally weak period of year, where companies are trimming workforces, ... It weighs on people's minds when they hear about companies cutting back.

Today's numbers show that consumers are not very optimistic about the economy. As a result, we will see consumer spending reduced until we see some relief on energy prices. If we don't get some relief, it looks like it will be a very weak holiday season.

It shows that consumers are feeling poorly about the economy, similar to what we've see in other recessions. Confidence is not as low as it was in the recessions of the early 1990s and early 1980s, but it is dropping in response to the worsening employment situation and the concern about the terrorism threat.

If you look back at the'70s and'80s, the Fed was perceived to be the man behind the curtains. Today, it's looked at as a more prominent player. I'd say (Greenspan's) better known than members of the Supreme Court, and that wasn't true of his predecessors.

He's basically expressing the concerns that a central banker normally expresses at this point in the economic cycle, and that is that there are reasons to be cautious, ... Trading Places .

If we'd had a substantial decline in the dollar against the Chinese currency we'd have probably seen a substantial rise in the price of some of the items that we buy from China.