Ethan Harris Quotes on Business & Commerce (10 Quotes)

The number itself wasn't very surprising, ... (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan's comments last week that the trade gap might start getting smaller raised attention and some hopes. But I didn't agree with him about that.

This is why people talk about radical moves down in the dollar. They just can't see an improvement of the trade balance happening any other way.

Before the war, consumers were doing OK, but the corporate sector didn't want to get going, ... We're back to the same environment. You see it in surveys of CEOs -- they just aren't convinced that now's the time to start expanding their business.

Only with very weak U.S. growth or a major drop in the U.S. dollar will the trade deficit improve on a sustained basis. The reason you need these dramatic movements is that the U.S. has, according to almost every study, an incredible appetite for imports.

That's the big lingering risk factor sitting out there on the horizon. Will we have a gradual adjustment, where the trade deficit gradually improves, or will we have an accident along the way

Everyone is all zeroed in on the consumer now, but the truth is that the consumer isn't the driver now. Confidence is picking up, but still at average levels. Wage growth is slow and the bulk of the tax cut is already in place. Finally, with all the debt people have taken out over the past several years the burden of paying monthly bills is leaving less for discretionary spending.

corporate America in a very conservative mode, cutting costs, trying to rebuild profits -- not in the mood to hire or expand their businesses.

In the big oil shocks that really damaged the economy, the tax on the consumer was many times more than that, but that alone wasn't enough. You also had to have people worrying that prices were going higher forever.

If you're doing budget planning in business, you budget for the downside risks, not for the most optimistic scenario. But the federal government doesn't have to worry too much -- it's the only business that has a blank check.

The main thing holding back the economy in the past year and a half has been a lack of business confidence, and now we're seeing these surveys with a fairly optimistic take on the economy. The non-manufacturing survey certainly reflects the general increase in confidence, and that's a self-fulfilling thing.