David Orr Quotes (34 Quotes)

While the monthly data is often erratic and the government statisticians warn that it takes four months to establish a change in trend, it is pretty clear from the top chart that the explosion in housing from 1997 through early 2000 is ending.

My belief all along is the unemployment rate is the key to consumer behavior, ... A 4.5 percent unemployment rate would be more than a half a percentage point above the low of 3.9 percent. If unemployment goes up a half percentage point from its trough, you almost always get a recession subsequently in the next 12 months. There is a snowballing effect that begins to happen once you get too much past that size increase. While it might take a nice round 5.0 percent rate before people get panicked, the snow may already be rolling over them by then.

Not bad, but less than the 18 percent (annual rate of growth) in the second quarter and 26 percent (rate) in the first quarter.

It's like the kid doesn't want to take any medicine, but it's good for him, ... It's a little medicine now versus a lot of bad medicine later.

We would not argue the gradual year-to-year increase in unit labor costs is not of concern at the Fed, but are convinced that none of today's data will impact their decision at their next meeting on Oct. 5,

But that's if economic conditions become far worse than they are now, ... It's a bit like saying 'if the sun doesn't come up tomorrow then crops will fail,' or 'the world may end if it gets hit by a meteor.'

When we heal the earth, we heal ourselves.

It's not as bad as we thought, but it's still going in the wrong direction.

We have often noted the Fed tries to choose a policy action that minimizes the consequences of a mistake. Which would have the least negative consequences today easing too much and setting off an excessively strong rebound or easing too little and allowing the economy to slip back into recession We would vote for the former.

For the past six months we've all been wondering when consumers would come back down to earth from their stratospheric orbit. It looks like it's finally happened.

Things obviously got away from them. But by acting in such dramatic fashion, the Fed sent a loud signal to participants in both the financial and the business sectors that the Fed will fight the threat of recession as vigorously as it fought the threat of inflation.

More people could die in the aftermath from lack of shelter and food than in the earthquake itself.

Initially, we estimated the number of people in need was about one million and we had reached about 50 percent of them. We've had a food security team in the field and they've revised the estimate up quite dramatically.

The report will not comfort the Fed, despite the good headline data, ... The news further back in the pipeline was not good.

We're much more upbeat now than a few weeks ago when there was a sort of creeping anxiety.

Given that the Fed has indicated this is a key number, that's very hopeful,

The soap opera will continue. I wouldn't take them off stage altogether as some people are doing.

It does fit in with Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's perception that we're past the peak of consumer spending binge, ... He doesn't want consumer spending to be slow, but he wanted it to back off from stratospheric levels.

We're looking at an innovative non-standard way to float the company, that may involve giving existing shareholders priority in any offering. We're not ruling anything out.

There's definitely that possibility, although one of the things the Fed wants to get away from is slavishly bowing to that lather, ... I'm still expecting a quarter point cut. There's a concern by some members of the Fed that they risk over stimulating the economy. And if you keep making half-point cuts, you'll run out of bullets pretty quickly.

People have been saying shelter, shelter, shelter but there is no point having a tent if you are cold and hungry inside.

The data is squarely at odds with the anecdotal evidence one gets from those in the industry.

Despite the discouraging headline that CPI inflation rose, there was actually more to be encouraged than discouraged about in this report. Since it is already known that gasoline has dropped sharply in October, that September rise can also be ignored.

The results are great for builders, great for sellers of home building products and consumer household products, and great for growth, ... But, the dramatic strength in both units sold and in prices are both more fuel for a more aggressive Fed.

It will no doubt buoy forecasters who see the recent slowdown in the economy as a temporary affair -- which includes the Fed,

The Fed views potential inflation as last year's problem. This year, they will be focused on promoting a rebound in growth.

The data reflect that main concern that Mr. Greenspan has voiced in his recent comments, i.e., that with labor markets this tight, there is a real risk that compensation costs will accelerate faster than the ability of productivity gains to offset those costs, thus boosting unit labor costs and thereby generating price increases,

We're getting a flip with these numbers, ... We had been seeing all year long the consumer doing well and the manufacturing sector doing poorly. Here, consumer confidence has fallen, but there's a hint of the manufacturing sector stabilizing.

Increased interest rates might also mean a smaller pay raise as well as a more gradual increase in the value of your investments. But slower may be surer. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, people were getting 10 percent pay raises, ... But housing prices were going up 12 to 15 percent, and so were cars.

It seemed serious that he fired bullets into the trailer. One had gone clear through the other side.

As is evident, a clear deceleration appears to be underway, ... The gain was not large enough to recoup the 13.1 month-over-month decline in July.

The more stable picture in the total index and the lessening pace of decline in orders would fit with the idea of a 25-basis-point (0.25 percent) reduction on May 15 instead of the more aggressive 50-basis-point (0.5 percent) (cuts) of recent months.

We seriously doubt this report will dissuade the Fed from a 50-basis-point hike today. But if the May 'core' report is also benign and May retail sales are only moderate, that could cause the Fed to take a pass at the June 28 meeting.

(Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan thinks consumer confidence is important, and if he thinks so I guess we should think so,