David Kelly Quotes (50 Quotes)

On average, both the quantity and quality of employment are improving. But the evolution of the modern economy has resulted in an hourglass effect where the middle is getting squeezed. Individuals are either moving up or down but finding it hard to hold their ground.

One of the biggest upward revisions was to investment spending on equipment, exactly the area we're worried about. That grew marginally, and that's the start of something.

There is a difference between transparency and clarity. You can put everything out there and have a full airing of different opinions. But sometimes there is too much emphasis on the Fed's deliberations rather than its conclusions and that confuses things.

What generally happens is, during the first year of economic expansion, we see more productivity growth than job growth, and that changes as you go into the second year. We may be on the cusp of that.

Even if consumers pull back a bit, just rebuilding those inventories will add a lot of growth. We will see a shift to business spending from consumer spending in the fourth quarter, and when that occurs, it will be quite healthy.

Katrina will raise inflation and cut profits, but only for a short period of time. On balance, it will hurt economic growth also, but we still cannot tell with assurance by how much.

I was using my big actor voice.

When Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990, little did I realize that Saddam Hussein would dictate the next 10 years of my life,

Nothing about what they said today is surprising -- they changed the minimum number of words (from their last statement). We're still waiting for confirmation (of a recovery in) the labor market.

Productivity can act as a natural thermostat for inflation and prevent it from becoming dangerously high or low.

Either in May or June, the Fed will have to raise interest rates.

We hope a review of these cases will jog the memory of the people.

I think the Fed ought to be honest about what it believes. No good can come from having artificially low interest rates.

We saw companies push up output strongly without increasing labor costs at all. As orders come in, they will have to increase their total employment. Unless economic growth slows very rapidly, the unemployment rate should begin to move down in the next few months.

Conway can take this information and integrate into an already exceptional heritage tourism program.

It's not a barn-burner of a job market, but it should be good enough to keep the consumer hanging in there. That winning streak is unaffected by all these numbers.

Sometimes at the top of the market, it's really just about people trying to make 22 equal 5. A lot of the biggest mergers conducted in the most optimistic circumstances don't enhance shareholder value that much. We don't want to see a repeat of that.

I fully expect that when the Fed decides to put an end to rate hikes they will give us notice,

A lot of American businesses are still fighting the last recession as opposed to gearing up for the next expansion. That process could take a few months, so we could still see some ugly numbers from the labor market for another month or two.

Outside those areas, there's just not enough money to get you there.

How you view the job market depends on perspective, and that perspective is very different across different industries, different regions and different income groups.

There should be nothing scary in the oil inventories. It should show huge inventories or close to huge inventories. If you want to be scared about oil, you have to come up with something out of the Middle East or Africa, like the growing violence in Iraq.

The economy is strong but not too strong. The right thing for the Fed to do is stay on track and raise rates 25 basis points. Any deviation from the measured pace is a mistake.

It's pretty tough if you run a retail business in Manhattan. I'm sure the guys on Fifth Ave will be feeling the pinch because of this to some extent.

This is actually a case where the numbers are where you want them to be. Inflation's about two percent, not going up or down -- this is the comfortable middle. The American economy has other problems, but this isn't one of them.

I don't know of many serious economists who think that a tax increase, immediately implemented, is a good idea.

This is one more in a very long list of indications that have shown in the past month that this economy is busting out of recession. This is not just a slow, mild rebound. It's a much stronger rebound than people expected.

The reason spending dropped in January was a big fall in auto sales. I don't think this tells us much that's new -- it's consistent with an economy still growing in second or third gear.

I'm glad it wasn't worse. I wouldn't say the job market is out of intensive care yet, but if we see a pickup in retail sales and a pickup in business spending in the next few months, the effects of recent weak economic growth should be done by the third quarter.

Baby boomers are turning 60, and they're working to build up those nest eggs for retirement. For some that are running behind, that means putting at least some of that nest egg into more aggressive investments. For a while, that was real estate or high-yield bonds. Not anymore.

The unemployment rate will come down slowly because of tremendous productivity gains, but I don't doubt the strength of final demand.

The Fed knows darn well that higher oil prices increase the risks of a recession more than it does triggering massive inflation. If the price of oil suddenly crashed and consumer spending were to get better than the Fed might want to go to 4.25 percent but I think 4 percent is the magic number.

One thing that's clear is that the Fed is determined to still seem balanced. The minutes will reflect a little more inflation concern and a little more concern about the economy but no deviation from the measured pace.

It was a brave goal, a fantastic goal. According to the medical people Brett didn't know much about it but he'll be OK.

What's remarkable is how little the statement changed. The one thing that is important is that the Fed has always, over the past few years, tipped its hand. But they have still not indicated that they are close to ending their tightening.

I have coached in the SEC and I have coached in the ACC, ... The SEC always had the better reputation. But with the additions to the ACC, there is no difference now. We will play the best competition in the country and that will certainly help us in recruiting.

The markets are looking for the bad news in general,

This is a classic case of the labor market lagging. We're going to see weakness for another few months, but the pace of the growth of the economy is going to help the job market. We are busting out of recession here. This is not a mild rebound.

There's clearly a lack of interest in investing while the economy works through these Katrina issues, ... We need to get a clearer sense of when gasoline prices are going to come back to normal. When I talk to retail investors, a lot are frozen by the level of uncertainty those issues create.

No, all I can say is that it was the Number 10 press office.

It generally takes a few months after GDP growth such as we saw in the third quarter before that turns into strong growth in employment.

Yes they are. Even if they are not actually filled and deployed today the capability exists to get them filled and deployed within a matter of days or weeks. So yes, they are a real threat.

to ease the transition to another Internet service provider.

This is a slight move away from the Fed's completely balanced view of the world on inflation but I don't think they will accelerate the pace of tightening, ... There is a little more fear of inflation but the fact that the Fed kept measured tells me they are comfortable with the path they are on.

It seems like there are more wants since the hurricane. People can only give so much.

The single most significant number is the inventory number. The rebuilding of inventories hasn't even started yet. When they do, it will be a major source of additional stimulus to the economy.

A crucial issue is how fast the price of gasoline comes down, ... If you can get the price of gas down before Thanksgiving, that will give us a strong holiday shopping period, and that could help the market.

Two recessions in more than eighteen years is not a bad E. R. A. -- earned recession average. The bottom line is he did a very good job as Fed chairman.

The economy is getting better. The Fed is the most competent authority to rule on that, to tell investors, consumers and businessmen that this expansion is under way. And I think they should do that.

The key issue is economic growth. It's building toward a strong positive surprise. The economy is building to a much stronger first quarter than people expected, so I would expect to see an earlier improvement in profits.