Dan Niles Quotes (23 Quotes)


    This is yet another data point that the general IT spending pickup continues to stretch out in time. We do not see a recovery till after the summer at the earliest and even then expect the recovery to be gradual.

    Slightly, to my mind, implies 3- to 5-percent growth. I think most people were looking at the 7- to 8-percent range for the fourth quarter.

    We believe that Intel is seeing the most front-end loaded third quarter in many years and is booked out for the quarter.

    The supply situation will likely get worse in the first half, while demand looks sluggish at best, with large inventory levels in the supply chain.

    Dell reaffirmed their guidance for the third quarter, but gave no guidance going forward. They also said that industry growth for the third quarter was going to be worse than expected.


    It doesn't get a lot better than that, especially for a company that just hasn't been doing very well for the last year. It's going to be good for them tomorrow, and that should have a positive affect on a lot of the other chip makers, especially guys that are closely related. It will have generally a positive affect on the overall market.

    If the shareholders vote against this deal, it is hard to see how she will remain. In our opinion, the only beneficiaries to the current increase in uncertainty are Dell and IBM.

    The unit growth is not so strong as to offset the price declines they're seeing in their chips.

    We're getting to the latter half of the year. and typically, the industry sells close to 20 percent more PCs in the second half versus the first half. People are getting ready in anticipation of a much stronger second half of the year.

    We believe that Compaq also did a good job on the profitability front, which should enable operating margins to more than double from third-quarter levels ... this should lead to earnings-per-share at least several cents higher than the consensus First Call estimates of 0.16.

    Over the past two years, AMD has increased its market share against Intel from 13 percent to 21 percent. For those who thought the price war was aggressive, you haven't seen anything yet.

    I'm surprised it was this good, quite honestly. And more importantly the guidance for next year on the gross margin line of 57 percent. I think people are going to be very encouraged given that's up pretty substantially from what they did this last year.

    Our stance has been in big enterprise applications, it was obvious that people were buying ahead to get their systems ready for Y2K. The mainframe business is a dying business, and our feeling was IBM would see it in the third and fourth quarters because the growth patterns weren't normal.

    There could be a bloodbath in pricing in the first part of next year if they don't move inventories over the holidays. The magnitude of the miss gives you an idea of what's going to happen with the PC market next year.

    This economy is not going to rebound any time soon. To sit here and guess where the bottom is is a loser's bet.

    Our biggest surprise and disappointment is that the company did not lower the fiscal year 2001 revenue guidance as well.

    It's a disaster. They told us three months ago that Y2K isn't going to have any effect on them at all. They miss this quarter, now they're saying the next quarter is going to be even worse and that the first quarter will have even more losses.

    The problem is how long will it take for the fundamentals to stop getting worse, and we don't see that happening any time soon.

    When you miss your top line by 1 billion, the stock should go down. With negative year-over-year revenue growth it is really hard to get excited about the stock.

    Dell's forecast paints an ugly picture of current trends and calls into question the credibility of a seasonally better third quarter that others have forecast.

    Services are much more profitable than their core business.

    The merger uncertainty being a big concern hasn't seemed to affect their corporate demand as much as we would have expected, so we think the fourth quarter ended up pretty well for both consumer and corporate demand for them.

    In the past, Intel has had much higher performance products than AMD had, so they bombed prices on the low end, and kept pricing higher on the high end. This time, AMD's got as speedy processors as Intel does at the high end. There's nothing Intel can do.


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