Alfred Kugel Quotes (15 Quotes)


    You really have a two-tier market with tech stocks going down and everything else going up. Part of this is because valuations in technology stocks got overdone this year and, at the same time, the Dow hadn't performed and now they look cheap.

    Some of the things that worried people, that the economy was slowing too much, that inflation was rising too much, have been assuaged here by the numbers we got this morning.

    We have a lot of cross currents right now and so it's very difficult for investors to pick out the proper path. People like myself think that things are in fact slowing down some, that inflation is not a significant problem, and that while the Fed may tighten policy once in the next couple of months, they really probably don't need to.

    Unemployment claims were OK. I suspect we're still in for low volatility sliding up to the close tomorrow. I don't expect any big moves in either direction. That's disappointing, given that the week between Christmas and New Year's is what we call the Santa Claus rally, and so far all we've gotten is a lump of coal.

    This changed the whole psychology of the market from one of disappointment to one of optimism.


    I would guess this will be another weak report and that, I think, will keep the Fed on its path of easing, ... In a perverse way, the market will like it because they'll think the Fed will make another cut at the next FOMC meeting.

    You don't bet the farm but you need to be putting some money in as you find stocks that look attractive.

    Generally the market will tend to go in the opposite direction of oil prices and sometimes oil shares, but that didn't happen today yet.

    There's a lot of bad news priced into the market, ... If things turn out not to be as bad as discounted, we will have a rally this summer, and we will end the year 10 percent higher than we are now.

    I'm afraid we're not out the woods yet with our friends at the Fed.

    They're now looking at a situation where their shareholders are going to see the fund is down for the year but they're going to have to pay taxes on large gains. The managers are selling tech stocks that they might have bought at higher prices to realize losses and offset the gains.

    Inflation seems very unlikely to me in the current economic environment. We have huge amounts of production capacity and plenty of labor around the world, especially in China and India.

    People were worried the financial companies wouldn't have a strong earnings trend because of the flat yield curve, but now it's been flat for a while, and the earnings are still coming through.

    We've now changed the valuation of the stock market quite a bit, ... If anything, the earnings estimates have been going up and stocks have been going down. The price-to-earnings ratio on forward earnings is now down to about 15 times, which is very low relative to interest rates and inflation at the present time.

    The fundamentals are still there. We have low inflation, low interest rates and a worldwide demand for American products I don't think you have a problem as far as the market going up.


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