With various indicators showing signs of softening, the Fed will probably hold steady on June 28, ... We do not think they are finished for the year, but they do not have a compelling case to push further ahead after a 50-basis-point adjustment in May.
More Quotes from Michael Moran:
There's a firm belief in the financial markets that inflation is under control and is not likely to emerge as a problem.Michael Moran
Housing is the most vulnerable sector of the economy at this time.
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The consumer sector has been among the strongest in the economy and I think that's the area that (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan and company are really worried about.
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At this point, with the information in hand I'm still inclined to look for an interest rate increase of 25 basis points from the Fed, but we're seeing some numbers start to pop up that lead you to wonder exactly what the Fed may do. It's not inconceivable that they might decide to hold steady at the end of June.
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Mortgage rates have increased an additional 35 basis points from their average in the first quarter,
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The real challenge on the energy front hasn't hit yet because it's not winter. When people start to get high heating bills, it will be another story.
Michael Moran
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