It is very hard to find any evidence of a real end to the upturn that began in late 1998. Although we see little to support semiconductor stock prices during the next two months, we strongly believe that the sector will be hitting new highs before the end of the year.
More Quotes from Joe Osha:
While many of the stocks in this group are already down by 50 percent over the past several weeks, we believe that inventory concerns, coupled with telecom service-provider capital-spending concerns, will weigh on the group for the next one to two quarters. We note that the group in aggregate still has the highest valuations in the semiconductor business, even after the recent decline.Joe Osha
Although one could argue that Analog Devices' upbeat outlook merits raising the number even further, we would prefer to wait and see how growth shapes up over the year as Analog Devices catches up with its backlog and the current feeding frenzy for Analog Devices products dissipates.
Joe Osha
What we see happening is a bottoming to the rate of change in the semiconductor business, which has been negative and less capacity being added by the fourth quarter, which is also good. So, although companies themselves are still very conservative we think that the worst is past in terms of the downturn here.
Joe Osha
I'd be a lot more comfortable with the group at 20 times 2003 earnings.
Joe Osha
The disappearance of Vista from the holiday 2006 selling season is likely to have a bigger impact on semiconductor companies than a simple few-week delay might imply.
Joe Osha
In posting the weakest Q4 revenue result and Q1 outlook since the bursting of the bubble, Intel has made it clear how much competitive ground the company has lost to AMD. The extent of the losses has exceeded our expectations.
Joe Osha
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