We think it's likely that the stock will see a short-term rally on relief that the outlook has not deteriorated further, but the absence of bad news does not constitute an argument in support of the stock... we struggle to understand the upbeat consensus outlook for the fourth quarter.
More Quotes from Joe Osha:
Valuation for the stock appears significantly high for a company with a sustainable earnings growth rate of 10 percent to 15 percent. We have difficulty imagining any second-half recovery that could raise earnings, and investor expectations, to a level sufficient to keep the stock moving up.Joe Osha
Despite our conservative remarks on margin compression and pricing intensity, we continue to believe Intel will meet our revenue forecast and reiterate our intermediate-term neutral and long-term accumulate rating.
Joe Osha
We've seen investment in capacity go up quite a bit and we had a scare this summer with wireless. So you can make a case that the business is in trouble. We try to focus on slightly longer-term fundamentals. The relationship between spending and revenue in this business is still reasonable. Visibility is still good. Pricing is good. Let's not forget, wireless handset demand is growing 50 percent over year-on-year. So with stocks down a bit and the fundamentals still solid, we though it was time to declare the mid-cycle correction over.
Joe Osha
In posting the weakest Q4 revenue result and Q1 outlook since the bursting of the bubble, Intel has made it clear how much competitive ground the company has lost to AMD. The extent of the losses has exceeded our expectations.
Joe Osha
Intel's mid-quarter update was generally in line with our expectations, which supports our checks suggesting that the PC market is tracking normal seasonality in the back-end loaded third quarter.
Joe Osha
The rate of decline for both the flash memory and communications business in the second quarter could be more dramatic than the overall top line, leaving it to the microprocessor business to pick up the slack.
Joe Osha
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