The stronger data virtually assure significant changes in the Fed's directive this week, ... The new directive will probably include a grudging acknowledgement of the stronger labor market and inflation statistics.
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For the Fed to hike rates now would be the equivalent of a doctor prematurely declaring a patient at full health, discharging them from the hospital and then forcing them to run a mile.
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If you're doing budget planning in business, you budget for the downside risks, not for the most optimistic scenario. But the federal government doesn't have to worry too much -- it's the only business that has a blank check.
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You're not talking about a full-blown business-cycle recovery here, which is something like 6 percent GDP growth for a year. To get that, you'll need the whole economy operating in full-growth mode, and clearly the consumer isn't.
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What we're looking for is evidence of the corporate side of the economy gaining confidence and making real commitments in its own spending. There, I'd say the news is at best mixed,
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