But the scale of the fall remains beyond that which would be expected, given the difference in supply lines, and regardless of its motivation it still raises the question as to how inventories for the driving season can be built in a timely fashion.
More Quotes from Paul Horsnell:
We believe that Iran matters more than is currently priced in, and that Iran's external relations remain the key wild card.Paul Horsnell
We are in the middle of a fairly ferocious energy price spike. The spike could be checked by a move back towards normality in Venezuela, or by a release of U.S. strategic reserves. However, the application of either of these brakes does not look particularly imminent, and in their absence the upwards pressure is likely to continue.
Paul Horsnell
After all the gnashing of teeth about demand destruction, waves of imports, and the build-up in commercial inventories of what were previously strategic stocks, the final result has actually been a tightening for the US and Japan combined. Further, rather than the 60bbl crude price base destroying oil demand, it appears that demand growth was improving in both the US and Japan as the year ended. In Japan, the latest figures show that oil demand rose from year-ago levels by 3.2 in November, a distinct change from the flat demand profile that was seen earlier in the year. Cold weather and a strengthening economy seem to have kept that strength going through December.
Paul Horsnell
The shortage is in gasoline, so you would need to add huge amounts of crude oil to have even a minor impact on prices. This is a time when the shortage has nothing to do with crude oil, and OPEC cannot fix it.
Paul Horsnell
The issue of Iran's international relations continues to rise to the fore as a major potential area of market concern. It now seems likely that the EU3 of Germany, UK, and France will later this week abandon the mothballed talks with Iran.
Paul Horsnell
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