We believe that Iran matters more than is currently priced in, and that Iran's external relations remain the key wild card.
More Quotes from Paul Horsnell:
The potential consequences don't even bear thinking about. There's such a concentration of refineries and chemical plants in a relatively small area that anything of that kind of intensity would be extremely nasty.Paul Horsnell
After all the gnashing of teeth about demand destruction, waves of imports, and the build-up in commercial inventories of what were previously strategic stocks, the final result has actually been a tightening for the US and Japan combined. Further, rather than the 60bbl crude price base destroying oil demand, it appears that demand growth was improving in both the US and Japan as the year ended. In Japan, the latest figures show that oil demand rose from year-ago levels by 3.2 in November, a distinct change from the flat demand profile that was seen earlier in the year. Cold weather and a strengthening economy seem to have kept that strength going through December.
Paul Horsnell
We are in the middle of a fairly ferocious energy price spike. The spike could be checked by a move back towards normality in Venezuela, or by a release of U.S. strategic reserves. However, the application of either of these brakes does not look particularly imminent, and in their absence the upwards pressure is likely to continue.
Paul Horsnell
There is no instant turnaround. It could take five years, six years or seven years.
Paul Horsnell
The most immediate concern remains Iraq, where the prospect of further severe political and economic setbacks appears to be increasing.
Paul Horsnell
The loss of short-haul heavy crude oil imports into the U.S. market is now becoming significant. None of that effect is currently in the U.S. weekly data, although it can be expected to depress imports in at least the next two weeks of data.
Paul Horsnell
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