Philip Shaw Quotes (31 Quotes)

The strength of high street activity during the month (November) reflects an abrupt turn in the weather driving demand for winter wear.

Although it is clear the Bank is planning to keep rates on hold for now, our view is the MPC is still too optimistic on growth.

The PMI is a big upside surprise ... and is at least hinting that services growth stepped up at the end of last year.

Children with the most agile minds have the most rapidly changing cortex.

We think the door is still open for a cut in rates over the next two months, perhaps as soon as next month.

And we find the most intelligent children started off with a relatively thin cortex, but it then got thicker relatively rapidly, reached its peak thickness in certain key areas several years later but then also got thinner quicker.

Everybody's looking toward consumer confidence in the States tomorrow, followed by other data later in the week.

The main point though is that output growth has now been below trend for five quarters and we can't see that changing over the next year or so,

The figures are significantly better than expected and may call into question whether the MPC will raise interest rates at its July meeting. Clearly there are no inflationary pressures in the near term.

Children might inherit certain genes that incline them to interact with their environment in very 'stimulating' ways. This stimulation could then influence brain development. . . . What is less likely is the idea that we are born with a certain set of genes which 'fix' at birth our intelligence and the trajectory of our brain development.

Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.

This was extraordinarily weak, even taking into account the seasonal unreliability of the data.

The fall in unemployment is a bit of a surprise. There are no signs for the time being that wage inflation is picking up although the numbers next month will be critical.

A lot of research in intelligence has not been that great. I would hope by this modest descriptive study to put things on an empirical footing.

It was a case of the panic being overdone, ... U. S. institutional investors were going to sell their European assets, but the coordinated action removed the fear about a weaker euro.

The figures are a mixed bag but what's quite striking is how low output price inflation remains despite the general background of higher input costs.

The critical numbers will be the data on January which are due in a couple of months, but there are no signs of inflation-busting pay deals from these numbers and we expect that to remain the case.

I was surprised that the relationship between intelligence and brain structure changed so much as a child grows up. In early childhood, the smartest children had a thinner cortex -- this is the opposite of what you'd expect. By late childhood, the pattern had changed completely.

such a modest increase in unemployment is unlikely to have any impact on consumer confidence or affect consumer spending.

We are increasingly nervous about our call for a quarter-point rate cut in February, even if we are not ready to throw in the towel. Continued sluggish growth should mean the next couple of years see a degree of disinflation, justifying lower interest rates.

The debate over rates will continue to intensify over the coming months, not least as the committee has received downside surprises from output and upside surprises from inflation.

We will see nervous trading ahead, as we have seen from Cisco that the worst is not yet over for corporate earnings.

It's very early to be drawing too many conclusions on the high street after the Christmas and New Year trading period. It's going to take some time for the full picture to unfold.

The rebound so far this year is unconvincing and that has to place a question mark against the Bank of England's optimism for a recovery in consumption this year.

As a result, fears over a significant near-term increase in personal or corporate taxation have virtually disappeared. Most expectations, including our own are for a broadly neutral stance.

That might be happening more efficiently in the most intelligent children. People with very agile minds tend to have a very agile cortex.

What this suggests is that we may have already seen the peak of headline inflation.

Economic news since the 4 August easing has been a mixed bag and consistent with rates remaining on hold.

While we believe the recent run of stronger high street spending will peter out, a majority of MPC members may differ and we expect official rates to remain on hold at 4.5 percent.

The figures are better than expected and although petrol prices have come down, there is an improvement in core rate of inflation.

Last month's inflation report was about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see. The balance of news has turned around significantly over the past month and we now expect rates to remain on hold at 4.5 for the remainder of the year.