James McCormack Quotes (26 Quotes)

Asia's political backdrop has recently become less favorable for growth.

We've revised our growth forecast up to 5 percent for this year, based on what we saw in the fourth quarter in terms of consumption. The strength of consumption surprised us somewhat in how robust it was.

When you've got credit growth that already exceeds (gross domestic product growth), that's a lot of new credit.

The Philippines is one country where politics matter.

They do a pretty good job of getting people in who are quite capable. They have a deep bench.

Those sovereigns in the midst of political turmoil also have the weakest growth rates in emerging Asia, and further downward revisions to the growth forecast may be necessary.

This will allow the government debtGDP ratio to continue its downward trajectory, alleviating pressure on sovereign credit worthiness as debt ratios gradually compare more favorably with rating peer group medians.

The more of these events there are, inevitably the weaker she becomes. Surviving a crisis in leadership doesn't necessarily strengthen a leader.

It still feels like a dream. I was just ecstatic to be able to come on a tour like this and to have the opportunity to experience Super 14 rugby, which I thought had passed me by at 29 years of age.

I don't think we will change our rating on Hong Kong in the foreseeable future because we have not seen any commitment from the government to introduce a goods services tax that will address volatility in its public finance and revenue sources.

This is one of the countries where politics matter and it is central to our assessment. Politics affects economic policy.

The biggest challenge for the central bank is to control the potential inflation that comes along with the buildup in reserves.

You don't see much opposition to her policy initiatives. I think it's more of a power struggle than a policy struggle.

We would like public finance and development issues to be addressed by authorities, including an improvement in per capita income, before we can consider China for a ratings review and a possible upgrade.

These are positive numbers for the Philippines. We have to make sure that the value-added tax increase is implemented and fiscal follow up is done in the medium term to further improve revenue.

There are clear improvements in the banking sector, for example, where the legacy of directed lending is slowly giving way to a more market-based allocation of credit supported by the involvement of foreign strategic investors.

The delayed e-VAT detracted from the overall credibility of the fiscal reform program, and we will wait until the e-VAT is implemented fully, including the rate increase from 10 percent to 12 percent scheduled for January 2006, before considering its positive effects on government revenues.

We will wait until taxes are actually implemented, that revenue is being collected. We will look at whether or not the tax rate will increase, but we assume it will.

The entire episode really damaged fiscal policy credibility in the Philippines.

So if the effective interest rate on Philippines government debt goes up, it just takes more of their revenues to service their debts, so these are issues that really do need to be addressed.

If the political turmoil continues, we may need to revise growth rates in countries like Thailand.

Notwithstanding ongoing regional integration with China, growth in Asia remains highly leveraged to external demand, and particularly the US consumer, whom we believe to be overstretched.

What would be under consideration is what to do with the negative outlook - whether to revert that back to stable, or to retain the negative outlook, or to downgrade the credit. But upgrading (the rating) from a negative outlook is not something that happens very frequently, and I don't expect that would happen in the case of the Philippines.

The fruit of previous investment is being reflected in the slower import figures, and that's good for medium-term growth.

The combined growth and external sector strengths allow Chinese policy makers to better address the country's structural economic challenges, and they have been taking the opportunity to do so.

We are still comfortable. In a BB range, we do have some tolerance for political noise.