Ken Goldstein Quotes (69 Quotes)

Signals for the immediate future point to continued expansion, although not at the breakneck pace of the fourth quarter of 1999, ... The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion continues to be interest-rate increases and the prospect of still more Federal Reserve Board action.

The latest readings on print want-ad volume suggest that job growth won't reach the 200,000-a-month pace for at least the next few months.

The healthcare area is in need of a wide range of workers. There are new ads for doctors, nurses, and technicians as well as the full range of support personnel from top executives and management jobs to records clerks, secretaries, food service and general administrative support.

The labor market remains on a high plateau that has prevailed in the last year and a half.

The Conference Board's latest help-wanted index, also released on Thursday, contributed to the tepid mood. The index fell a point to 37 from 38 in July. Help-wanted advertising volume has pretty much remained unchanged during the past six months. Overall economic momentum is no longer firing on all cylinders, ... And hiring intentions this summer are suggestive that companies may not increase hiring until the economy regains more solid footing.

The two-month decline in the index suggests that the already-weak economy is likely to remain weak into next year.

The labor market has been expanding throughout 1996, but in a very uneven pattern. Recent want-ad figures indicate that conservative hiring plans are keeping job growth below the rate of overall economic activity.

Consumer sentiment about job prospects over the next six months dipped in January. Thus, not only are the indicators suggesting modest gains in hiring, but consumers also do not think more new jobs will start opening up this spring.

There was cautious optimism a month ago that manufacturing declines might have been bottoming out, ... Now, in the wake of the attacks, economic demand seems likely to slow.

The Leading Economic Indicators have been anything but consistent -- flat to declining from July through September, and recovering in October and November.

Consumer income remains very strong and now there are bargain prices for a lot of new products that are just coming out to the market, big new computers, new DVD audio equipment,

Down the road, there are significant consequences in terms of what could be developing with the federal budget.

The labor market may finally be hitting bottom. While layoffs remain large, they are no longer intensifying. Job advertising volume has stopped declining, although it remains at very low levels.

Consumer spending remains the mainstay of this weak economic recovery. With tax cuts enacted, the consumer is likely to continue hanging in there, ... But a real recovery, including a slowdown in layoffs and the opening of new jobs, is far more dependent on recovery in (business) investment than on stronger consumption growth.

Given that we're at least a couple of months away from turnaround in the labor market, the fact that consumer confidence is not doing much worse than treading water is actually a good-news story.

Unlike the Gulf War, it won't determine a recession. There was long build-up to the Gulf War. We had troops over there for a month or two before they actually were engaged. I wouldn't expect that what action follows from here will last that long or have that much of a build-up.

Essentially the story is we have got moderate growth through the first quarter. We may tick up in the second quarter and we may tick down in the third quarter. Growth is going to be a little slower second half of the year.

The balance will eventually change, but these numbers suggest the caution businesses have been showing is warranted. They also say we might be waiting until early 2004 before we see much stronger business investment.

The underlying story here is that we have this strong job growth, ... if we continue to have strong job growth - and I think we will - then we will continue to see those wage levels push up.