By the time the election is over, the Fed might be in a position to increase rates more aggressively. In 2005, we might see rates going up more than a quarter (percentage point) every other month.
More Quotes from Sung Sohn:
We notice it every day -- when we go to gasoline stations, we pay more,Sung Sohn
Businesses are going to be waiting and seeing. The most important factor is how consumers behave, ... The cost of capital is important, but in the final analysis, you've got to sell products. If you're not going to sell products, you're not going to need capacity.
Sung Sohn
This report is a slow boat to China, reflecting continuing business caution about hiring people. Facing unprecedented competition from both domestic and foreign sources, businesses are still focused on productivity gains with as few employees as possible.
Sung Sohn
Two weeks ago traders thought there was no chance. If you had asked me Thursday, I would have said less than a 50 percent chance (of a December hike), at best I would have said a 50-50 chance. Now it looks pretty likely.
Sung Sohn
Manufacturing could be a key driver of economic growth in the future, as opposed to being a big drag as we've seen in the past, ... Even employment, which has been weak, should be coming around as demand continues to pick up steam.
Sung Sohn
Greenspan has to make sure the labor market has improved on a continuing basis before he can even think about hiking interest rates. For example, in 1992, he waited 17 months after the peak of the unemployment rate before hiking interest rates.
Sung Sohn
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