It is definitely clear that (housing) is one area where you will see less growth,
More Quotes from Stephen Stanley:
The labor market is the linchpin of our economic forecasts, because income growth is going to sustain the consumer.Stephen Stanley
There's a game of chicken going on with traders wanting to go short but too afraid of month-end demand to risk it, ... Anyway, nobody wants to be short in a holiday week when anything might happen geopolitically.
Stephen Stanley
He's thinking about legacy building at this point and the one thing he doesn't want to do is leave at the top of an immense bubble and have it burst soon after he leaves. He kind of touched on it yesterday in relation to the housing market.
Stephen Stanley
Ironically, with all this strength, the net effect of these data on the fourth-quarter GDP number could be flat or possibly even marginally negative. This is because durable goods inventories were flat, which should more or less offset the positive influence of the stronger-than-anticipated December shipments figures. For first quarter GDP, however, these data are unambiguously positive.
Stephen Stanley
But certainly the market should be focused on the core number, since that's what the Fed looks at. We're looking for an 0.2 percent increase, which wouldn't cause a big reaction in the market.
Stephen Stanley
The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts. You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.
Stephen Stanley
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