What'll happen is you'll see bond yields spiking higher, the dollar spiking lower and the Fed then having to raise rates, ... At that time, housing will probably start to weaken, stocks won't do well, and our standard of living will go down.
More Quotes from Paul Kasriel:
I agree with Gross. It's been refinancing of mortgages -- basically eating into one's seed corn -- that has been sustaining consumer spending. When that peters out, it's not clear what's going to kick in.Paul Kasriel
I've thought there would be some moderation in consumer spending this year, but I also thought that job growth would be better at this point than it has been. It may be that consumer spending will moderate even more than what I'm forecasting.
Paul Kasriel
When you're the world's banker, you really need to maintain the world's confidence in you and your currency. If you start telling creditors you're going to pay them back in currency that doesn't buy as much, they won't want to bank with you any more.
Paul Kasriel
When the fog of war is finally lifted, we may find that economic growth remains weak because monetary policy turns out to be less accommodative than the Fed thought.
Paul Kasriel
A recession is in the eye of the beholder, and the eye of the NBER, but clearly we're struggling here. We're at stall speed and it's not clear what, in the short term, is going to get the economy's nose up.
Paul Kasriel
For the Bush administration, Hubbard is a good soldier, he's out there being a cheerleader and the Fed says everything's OK. But you can't see their hands behind their backs, with their fingers crossed.
Paul Kasriel
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