I would think the probability of a move (on interest rates) would be somewhere around the 40 percent range.
More Quotes from Oscar Gonzalez:
The overall trend is still pretty dismal in terms of imbalances between imports and exports.Oscar Gonzalez
Consumers will continue to spend, and that will keep the economy chugging along for the next few months. But without some help, I worry that consumers could begin to falter later in the year. We need more business spending to fuel the economy's shift into a higher gear and sustain the recovery.
Oscar Gonzalez
I don't think recent price data suggests that inflation is dead. The Fed has to worry about whether or not it is keeping inflation under control and it would probably like to err on the side of caution.
Oscar Gonzalez
The numbers reflect a little bit of the unwinding of consumer spending, ... It's not all of that was unexpected, given the (weak) figures we had on retail sales.
Oscar Gonzalez
Since the economy is softening, I expect inflationary pressures to subside. The door is still open for the Fed to continue easing rates, as necessary.
Oscar Gonzalez
The trend is now clear. Inflationary pressures are building and prices are rising only the pace remains at issue, ... September's figures may prove to be just a spike, but we can't dismiss the growing risks of a sudden acceleration in inflation.
Oscar Gonzalez
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