With the import side holding up more strongly than exports for now, the Reserve Bank is unlikely to respond with lower interest rates in the near term.
More Quotes from Michael Every:
That was much worse than expected, and the underlying numbers look weak across the board.Michael Every
For the Reserve Bank, this is likely to significantly dampen any thoughts of rate increases going forward. With higher oil prices and a weakening housing market, employment growth should be much more moderate ahead.
Michael Every
The moderation is certainly very slow in arriving, even allowing for the usual lag in data, and these sectors' problems are clearly being mitigated by a pick-up in business investment and commodity exports.
Michael Every
Importantly, we believe that if oil prices drop back from present levels then CPI inflation may already have peaked year on year and should be on the way down over the rest of 2006 - potentially rapidly if oil reverses significantly.
Michael Every
The odds of a rate increase on Oct. 27 have shortened. The Reserve Bank is extremely worried over whether the economy will slow rapidly enough ahead to cap obvious inflation pressures. It looks increasingly like it will not.
Michael Every
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