I think the markets are basically making time as a result of the Iraq situation. The negatives are being played up, and the positive things not absorbed. With a modest resolution to some of these things we might see a market rally.
More Quotes from Michael Carty:
Investors have a long memory -- in those cases where we've had major oil shocks, overall demand has dried up, ... People are looking towards and fearing a slow-growth, inflationary environment -- stagflation.Michael Carty
Stocks rose sharply after the Fed cuts in the first quarter of 2001. So Fed action now could help.
Michael Carty
In addition, Microsoft is the 800 pound gorilla, ... so people are going to want to listen to them.
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Most analysts are calling for the market to rise between 5 percent and 10 percent next year, but I think it could be more like 15 percent. The economy is heating up, the employment picture has been improving and companies will begin spending more.
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Although people are somewhat concerned about where the economy is going, some rational exuberance is finally entering the market. Investors have been so pessimistic for so long that it seemed to be endemic, but people are beginning to believe there's an end in sight to all of this (bad news).
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Technology has been under a bit of a cloud and there's still concerns about the telecom industry, ... I think investors are still very wary of it. They want to see more robust capital expenditure.
Michael Carty
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