Ultimately, if you err on the side of being dovish it will only come with more pain from slower growth. The hit to growth would be more substantial from higher inflation than from interest rate hikes.
More Quotes from Mark Zandi:
At a minimum, this will hit consumers' pocketbooksand perhaps their confidence. Before Katrina, Goldstein estimated that consumers' annual fuel bills this year would average about 250 more for gasoline and 400 more for home heating oil and natural gas than in 2004. Now he reckons those amounts will go up 30 percent to 75 percent. Costlier energy could adversely affect consumer spending, corporate profits and inflationor all three. We could be reaching a tipping point on consumer psychology, especially when people get their home heating bills, ... Those will be big.Mark Zandi
At best, people should prepare for no pay increase and no bonus, something they have been getting a lot of. At worst, they should be thinking they may need to change occupations.
Mark Zandi
The rhetoric over China is intensifying for a number of reasons.
Mark Zandi
If the job market doesn't kick into higher gear soon, consumers will lose confidence and rein in their spending, and the economy will in all likelihood fall back into recession unless we're very lucky.
Mark Zandi
It's always a bit difficult to read the economic data in the winter, just because activity is thinner, and the vagaries of weather are more pronounced. So it's not unusual to see, although this is an extraordinary amount of volatility.
Mark Zandi
Most likely the higher prices will slow growth, ... But there is the growing threat that we get a combination of slower growth and higher inflation.
Mark Zandi
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