These somewhat disappointing figures might remind investors that not everything is bright in the euro zone. The long end has seen its yield highs.
More Quotes from Kornelius Purps:
In all likelihood, disappointing data will at some point in time dampen rate hike expectations. There's a reasonably good chance for yields to move substantially lower over the course of this year.Kornelius Purps
It's becoming harder to believe that the ECB will only raises rates once with confidence high and policy makers sounding hawkish. The short end of the bond market will remain under pressure.
Kornelius Purps
The ECB has signaled that if there was any risk inflation expectations would run away, they would contain them. With this central bank rate-hike cycle, it may lead to a flat yield curve by April.
Kornelius Purps
Assume that a time machine is beaming you back to Monday morning. You start the week with the impression of an unexpectedly strong 274k US payroll report in mind. In addition, a clairvoyant tells you that 1) US retail sales surged by 1.4 m-o-m in April, 2) German growth advanced by 4 q-o-q annualized in Q1 2005, 3) speculation about a revaluation of the Renminbi will intensify, 4) the oil price will fall by about USD 3.50 per barrel this week, 5) and the US Treasury will sell USD 51 bn in Treasury Notes. You make up your mind and conclude that in this environment yields need to go up. At least 99 out of 100 market participants with the same information would have shared your view. But reality is different. Yields are down and down and down again. These are Schwarzenegger markets, no one can beat them.
Kornelius Purps
The ZEW indicator is at levels which previously have marked a high, and discussion will now start on whether the ECB will hike rates earlier than in March. This will put the front-end under pressure.
Kornelius Purps
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