Iran matters more than is currently priced in and Iran's external relations remain the key wild card. We continue to see the situation as representing the major upside risk for oil prices this year.
More Quotes from Kevin Norrish:
There has been poor performance so far this year in the North Sea. The United States certainly is not coming back as quickly as people thought it would and Russia has been very, very poor, partly due to the cold weather.Kevin Norrish
Under normal conditions, that would be telling OPEC that a cut is necessary. With Nigeria losing about half a million barrels of production it makes it quite hard for them to justify it.
Kevin Norrish
One question would be whether it would be necessary for an increase in production in order to make up for Nigeria. I have a feeling, they probably view that as a bonus.
Kevin Norrish
U.S. oil inventories have risen rapidly, relative to normal patterns over the last four weeks. At the level of politics and geopolitical risks, the shadows have continued to gather and darken.
Kevin Norrish
Political expediency would argue for an increase in output, while commercial logic would argue that the pressure should be resisted when OPEC meets next week.
Kevin Norrish
Ultimately, a battle for market influence between geopolitical factors and the flow of U.S. data is likely to be settled in favor of the former.
Kevin Norrish
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