That's about as good as it gets for the next six months. We're about to downshift at least one gear, especially with respect to the job market.
More Quotes from Ken Goldstein:
The continued growth in consumption, not just in the second half of this year but continuing into 1998, means that producers have to invest. They've got to build up inventories.Ken Goldstein
The flat pace in the leading indicators points to continued moderation in U.S. economic activity. This is reflected in indicators for manufacturing, housing, consumer, labor, and financial markets. The economy is starting to reflect the impact of growth restraints.
Ken Goldstein
The September data indicate a general weakening in the job picture nationwide -- a trend we were seeing before the recent hurricanes, ... That data is consistent with the latest CEO Confidence Survey, which is also down.
Ken Goldstein
The labor market may finally be hitting bottom. While layoffs remain large, they are no longer intensifying. Job advertising volume has stopped declining, although it remains at very low levels.
Ken Goldstein
Historically, job advertising drops off in the months of November and December. This online series does not have a long enough history to seasonally adjust the data. However, we know from The Conference Board's long running Help-Wanted Index for print ads, as well as the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics' job vacancy index (JOLTS) that businesses typically decrease their recruitment in the last two months of the year. This seasonal November decline typically reflects the Thanksgiving holiday and a slowdown in recruitments after a seasonal upturn in the late summerearly fall. Year-end budget constraints may also play a role if funds are short for paid advertisements. Nationally, the downturn in new online ad volume the week before and the week of Thanksgiving more than offset the modest increases in the other weeks in November.
Ken Goldstein
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