Oil is a double-edged sword. From one aspect, it lifts overall inflation but from the other side of the same coin it places a constraint on growth. So if oil prices remain high, the implications for the Fed get a little dicey,
More Quotes from Keith Hembre:
There will be some clear near-term inflation effects because of higher energy prices.Keith Hembre
Growth should decelerate through the final three quarters of the year and once that happens inflation pressures we've seen will begin to ease. That should lead to a more benign tightening cycle, which won't be threatening to the financial markets,
Keith Hembre
What struck me as a little out of character was the Fed's characterization of inflation staying elevated, ... What was here was a clear absence of any sort of signal that the Fed is getting close to the end of tightening and the market seems to be reacting a bit negatively to that.
Keith Hembre
The Fed are saying that there is no evidence yet that underlying inflation is moving higher.
Keith Hembre
We'll see continued downward pressure on unit labor costs in the first quarter. I think it's favorable on the inflation front.
Keith Hembre
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