Export growth will remain solid in the months immediately ahead, which ought to help blunt (but not fully offset) the detrimental effect on the trade deficit of a likely acceleration in import growth.
More Quotes from Joshua Shapiro:
I don't think we're talking about a recession or a near recession. I think we're talking about growth that is slower than people expected.Joshua Shapiro
An aggressive effort by business to pass through higher energy prices will probably largely fail as an increasingly strapped consumer proves resistant.
Joshua Shapiro
While this was obviously a good month, we don't expect this to continue. We think it's going to be a slow drift up in core inflation going forward.
Joshua Shapiro
The Fed isn't going to get exited about inflation in the labor market. At this stage they are focusing on core inflation at the consumer level and growth. Certainly, the news lately on the growth side has been quite good.
Joshua Shapiro
Clearly, as this sales data and also the mortgage application data show, there is plenty of strength still in housing. However, is this, as we speculate above, fence-sitting buying ahead of perceived rate increases, or can this pace be maintained as buyers think that low rates will last for the foreseeable future.
Joshua Shapiro
If you get a big number next week, people will say great, the labor market is finally recovering, this is the last piece in the economic recovery, ... But they'll also say, well maybe now the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner.
Joshua Shapiro
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