I would agree that the risk of recession is greater today than it was a month ago. I can certainly think of how we can get to recession.
More Quotes from Jay Bryson:
This decline in exports is consistent with other data indicating that economic activity in most foreign countries remained weak at the start of the year.Jay Bryson
Sooner or later, foreigners will stop financing the deficit. But at this point they show no signs of slowing down. If there were trade barriers that caused Americans to buy significantly less imports, production here would go up a little, but the thing that would take the brunt of the reduction is that our spending would go down as prices went up. We would have less of everything.
Jay Bryson
I guess if there's any surprise it's that I would have thought exports would have grown a little more than they did. But in the second quarter everyone else had weaker economies, although more recent signs are that things abroad are picking up. So maybe June was too soon to look for an increase.
Jay Bryson
The real surprise is the strength in exports. These sharp increases in computer-related exports corroborate recent U.S. industrial-production data that show marked strength in high-tech industries.
Jay Bryson
The economy in the third quarter had a fair amount of momentum and oil prices were skyrocketing. You are going to see some 60 billion trade figures if for no other reason than the price of oil.
Jay Bryson
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