As the shakeout continues, we continue to believe that the Internet spoils will go to the few, not the many. As one investor we respect put it, anytime a new industry emerges, many turtles hatch, few make it to the sea.
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The environment continues to worsen versus our expectations, and we continue to think the seasonally weak first quarter will be the toughest quarter in terms of year-over-year growth. We also continue to expect the market to strengthen in the second half of the year, when the impact of the dot.com bubble has worked its way out of the system.Henry Blodget
There continue to be three major growth drivers in the consumer sector traffic, advertising, and commerce. Traffic growth in the U. S. continues to slow, as more than 50 percent of the total market is already online. More importantly, we estimate that more than 80 percent of disposable income is already online.
Henry Blodget
Although a settlement as described would be positive for the company, we believe it would be premature to conclude that the company's legal issues are behind it.
Henry Blodget
We contend AOL Time Warner is powerful enough that it won't go gently into the night (unlike Novell, WordPerfect, Lotus, Netscape, et al). We do believe, however, that developments between the two companies over the next year or two will have significant bearing on the long-term direction of the industry.
Henry Blodget
We also believe that some analysts are projecting that the company will miss the low end of the guidance range in Q3 and withdraw its goal of operating profitability in Q4. As a result, if the company hits the mid-point of the guidance range and reaffirms Q4 operating profitability, we would expect the stock to go up.
Henry Blodget
We continue to view Office XP as a 'nice-to-have,' not a 'must-have,' especially in a weak economy. We have therefore baked only modest impact from the launch into our estimates.
Henry Blodget
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