Even with a positive outcome in the war, the economy is going to have lost a lot of momentum by the time it's over. We're not going to see a few weeks of weak data -- we'll see a few months of weak data.
More Quotes from Ethan Harris:
But the obvious effect is on utility consumption, which will affect industrial output in the economy. People consume more electricity, that places more demand on natural gas, coal, power, and electrical systems.Ethan Harris
This is a feel-good report. When you get a strong growth number and a low inflation number, it's hard to get a better combination than that for the economy.
Ethan Harris
They keep fiddling with the language, and the general tone of the directive keeps getting a little less dovish.
Ethan Harris
Only with very weak U.S. growth or a major drop in the U.S. dollar will the trade deficit improve on a sustained basis. The reason you need these dramatic movements is that the U.S. has, according to almost every study, an incredible appetite for imports.
Ethan Harris
The reason the recovery was so feeble was you still had these hangover effects from the real estate and banking sectors, ... Real estate was still reeling from excess capacity and the whole thrift industry had been decimated by bad loans.
Ethan Harris
Nobody thinks the risk of inflation is equal to the risks of recession -- all indications are on the down side. The only way to rationalize this is that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan wanted a half-point cut, and to get a unanimous decision, he had to go to a neutral statement.
Ethan Harris
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