The current focus going into the employment report this week has much more to do with habit than anything based in reality.
More Quotes from Drew Matus:
The big wild card becomes what the Fed does about it. That's why the bond market is rallying -- rather than concentrate on the inflationary aspects of higher oil prices, the market thinks the Fed will focus on the growth aspects.Drew Matus
If we get more inflationary data, that could bring people back to their senses. Just because the Fed talks about inflation in a benign way one meeting doesn't mean that feeling will be pervasive at the next meeting.
Drew Matus
There have been historical precedents where people have spent well in excess of what they've earned from foreign trading partners for extended periods of time and nothing has happened. The big wild card is you have a reserve currency (such as the dollar), how much extra room does that give you. That's the 100,000 question, or the 100 million question, or the 1 trillion question.
Drew Matus
On a real basis the trade deficit widened by over 1.7 billion for the month and places the trade balance on a trajectory that would likely reduce fourth-quarter GDP growth by more than 0.5 percent.
Drew Matus
Growth is picking up in the labor market. People are returning to work, working longer hours and making more money. This shows that the economy is healthy. Fears of a soft patch were overblown.
Drew Matus
Growth was lower than expectations because of inventories -- which will need to be rebuilt -- while moderating employment costs will make it less costly for firms to hire additional workers. The still-strong level of wage and salary should buoy consumption.
Drew Matus
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