We estimate the near-term loss in terms of output, employment and income in the affected area coupled with the surge in energy costs that impacts everyone will offset any future rebuilding by a factor of two to one.
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That's a horse with a track record that we would rather not go against.David Rosenberg
One has to wonder how long the consumer can continue to spend at ... dizzying rates without a material improvement in the labor market.
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This has nothing to do with whether the yield is too high or too low or whether it's over or undervalued. And it certainly has nothing to with foreign central bank activity. It's about the business cycle.
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You need more than just the ability to spend, you need the incentive to spend. You're only going to start spending if you can prove to your board that your investment is going to pay off.
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Over the past three decades, the Fed tightened on eight occasions, five of these saw the yield curve invert,
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