The USDA may want to consider expanding the scope of the subjective yield surveys it uses in making the forecasts in order to incorporate a wider range of market and industry participants.
More Quotes from Darrel Good:
That level of use is historically consistent and provides evidence that the size of the 2005 harvest has been accurately estimated.Darrel Good
Based on current conditions, however, it appears that the soybean prices need to be at a level to discourage a large increase in U.S. acreage in 2006.
Darrel Good
Based on the relationship between the stocks-to-use ratio and price since 1998-99, a price of 2.51 implies a 2006-07 year-ending stocks-to-use ratio of 8.8 percent. In comparison, the current projection of the stocks-to-use ratio for the 2005-06 marketing year is 22.4 percent.
Darrel Good
However, if bird flu results in a permanent reduction in world poultry production, an increase in red meat production might eventually be required, resulting in increased feed consumption in the long term. Domestic demand prospects also remain strong due to increasing livestock production and expanding ethanol production. These developments should support increased corn consumption well beyond the 2005-06 marketing year.
Darrel Good
The forecasting comparisons for soybeans were somewhat sensitive to the measure of forecast accuracy considered. One measure showed that private market forecasts were more accurate than USDA forecasts for August, regardless of the time period considered. Another measure showed just the opposite.
Darrel Good
The range of 0.505 is at the low end of historical experience. New highs in the spot cash price are certainly possible, particularly if weather concerns persist into the spring.
Darrel Good
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