International oil prices have shifted to a higher level permanently.
More Quotes from Cameron Bagrie:
Confidence is a critical element if the economy is to maintain forward momentum. Expect growth to remain tepid but a recession to be averted.Cameron Bagrie
When it goes, it is going to go a country mile pretty quickly.
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Such levels have typically coincided with a short-term contraction. After five years of stellar growth, the economy is now entering a more sedate growth phase, as is required to alleviate pressure on resources.
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There's not a lot of investment opportunities out there, so yield is still the default play for the market. But when the New Zealand dollar turns, it will turn aggressively, and if we don't get yield demand it will fall by a country mile.
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It is probably close to its nadir but it will improve only slowly.
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The risk profile for inflation is just too significant to ignore.
Cameron Bagrie
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