Outside Europe things are looking pretty healthy, with imports falling back a little bit,
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We will see a gentle upswing from here.
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The risk is that the deficit is rather worse than the market is looking for and if that's the case it may swing the focus back to structural dollar negatives and away from the interest rate focus.
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What we're likely to get is no move but all the comments suggesting that there will be a move next month.
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The yen has gained on the vote of confidence in the Japanese economy, and that rates may start to rise sooner than expected.
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I think the market has got too pessimistic on interest rates,
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