We expect Oracle could appreciate at a more tempered rate over the intermediate term as fourth-quarter ... license revenues were muted by sluggish database growth, with strong earnings-per-share upside on continued margin expansion.
More Quotes from Chris Shilakes:
We are leaving our fiscal 2001 estimates and 87 12-month price objective for Microsoft materially unchanged, following fourth-quarter results that were largely devoid of the drama of the past two quarters. Nonetheless, 'caution' remains the operative word from Microsoft management, as continued choppy monthly unit demand from business PCs and a deliberate, gradual ramp from Windows 2000 platforms and related applications hinders near-term growth.Chris Shilakes
We believe the mainframe weakness will persist into the fall and possibly the December quarter, when G7 moves into full swing. In our view, this is more than a first-quarter issue, and we think both stocks will likely remain depressed.
Chris Shilakes
We believe Microsoft will be hurt by weakness in the consumer PC space, which represents roughly 10-15 percent of its business. As we have said, the shift to browser-based computing is slowing the need for upgrades, and perhaps the more sophisticated gaming platforms are removing the need for homes to have the latest high performance PC's. As a result, corporate PC's will have to pick up the slack in the next quarter.
Chris Shilakes
I'd be surprised if the strain was localized to Asia. Most of the survey work that we've done leading up into the end of the quarter also indicated that business was quite difficult in the U.S., and I wouldn't rule out a miss in Europe as well.
Chris Shilakes
Applications growth will again be a key focus for investors, although it contributes 25 percent of license revenue at present. We understand Oracle landed a couple of large deals in the quarter, perhaps 20 million in size, so there is some traction here.
Chris Shilakes
On calendar year 2000 revenues, this would yield a 387.9 billion market cap, or 70 per share. This is right in line with current trading levels.
Chris Shilakes
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William Shakespeare
Fear of the unknown is a terrible fear.
Joan D. Vinge